Democrats, Republicans Divided on Israel’s Role in War: AP-NORC Poll

WASHINGTON (AP) — Many American voters are concerned that the ongoing Middle East conflict will escalate into a full-scale regional war, a new poll finds. About half of voters are “extremely” or “very” concerned about the possibility of a wider war in the region.

Although there are concerns about the growing conflict, according to a survey conducted AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs ResearchFewer voters—about 4 in 10—are concerned that the United States will be drawn into a war in the Middle East. This survey was conducted before Israeli strike on military bases in Iran on Friday.

The conflict in the Middle East became a major campaign issue for former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. an attempt to win over Muslim and Jewish voters in states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. And while Democrats and Republicans are equally concerned about the possibility of the war expanding, they disagree over who is to blame for its recent escalation and how the United States should be involved in its further development.

Party split over level of Israeli government responsibility

About 6 in 10 voters believe the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the Iranian government and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah bear “most” responsibility for the escalating war in the Middle East. About 4 in 10 voters say the Israeli government bears “a lot” of responsibility, while only about 2 in 10 say the U.S. government bears “a lot” of responsibility.

But there is great disagreement over whether the Israeli government bears “large” responsibility for the escalation of the war. About 6 in 10 Democrats say they are — similar to the share of Democrats who say Hamas bears “a lot” of responsibility — while only about a quarter of Republicans say the Israeli government bears “a lot” of responsibility.

Voters back Iran sanctions, but don’t send US troops

Voters generally support economic sanctions against Iran, which could hamper support for its proxy groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The majority, 55%, support the introduction of sanctions. They are about evenly split on whether the United States should provide weapons to the Israeli army, and voters are more likely to oppose sending government funds to help the Israeli army than to support it.

Deploying American troops to help the Israeli military has little support among voters, regardless of party affiliation. About half of voters oppose the deployment of American troops to help the Israeli army. Only about 2 in 10 voters favor sending U.S. troops to help Israel, and the same share are neutral.

Many believe the US is doing everything it can in ceasefire efforts.

The US still insists on any movement on proposals for a short-term ceasefiredespite failures in the past and little expectation of immediate breakthroughs on the eve of the elections.

About half of voters think the US is doing “about everything it can” to broker a ceasefire between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah, while three in 10 say they could do more. About two in 10 voters think the United States should do less.

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to want less U.S. involvement in ceasefire efforts. About 3 in 10 Republicans say the U.S. should do less, compared with about 1 in 10 Democrats. About 6 in 10 Democrats say the United States is doing the best it can, compared with about 4 in 10 Republicans.

Democrats, Republicans and independents are about equally likely to say the United States could do more.

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The survey of 1,072 adults was conducted October 11-14, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The sampling margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.