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Here’s who’s leading 2024 presidential election polls in Wisconsin

Here’s who’s leading 2024 presidential election polls in Wisconsin

Topline

Three new polls released in recent days show Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, but polling averages show Trump has narrowed Harris’ lead in the crucial swing state, making it virtually tied in less than a week before election day.

Key facts

Harris’ approval rating among likely Marquette Law School voters has risen 50% to 49%. vote released Wednesday (margin of error 4.4 points), which includes undecided voters leaning toward one of the candidates, showing Trump has significantly cut into Harris’ six-point lead in school polls. previous survey released October 2.

Harris has the larger lead at 51%-45%. CNN/SSRS Pollalso released on Wednesday (error 4.8 points).

Harris Leads Trump 50% to 47% in Joint Election Study survey published this week as part of YouGov’s national survey of universities (1,542 respondents).

Trump has a slight one-point lead at Emerson College vote likely voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.4), while two other polls released last week had the candidates split: Quinnipiac vote which found them both with 48% support and Bloomberg/Morning Consult. vote this shows Trump up 48.3-48%.

Harris rose three points, from 50% to 47%, in the Washington Post-Schar School. vote likely voters, published last week (margin of error 4.6), as well as in the Wall Street Journal published in early October. vote showed that their share among registered voters is 48%.

Most polls for Wisconsin, whose 10 electoral votes could be decisive, show a close race, with Harris leading by just 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polls. weighted average.

Voter turnout in Wisconsin could be high in November as the state faces several competitive U.S. House races and Republicans are in a tight race to maintain majority control in the state Assembly, Anthony Chergoski, assistant professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La. Cross said WUWM Public Radio in Milwaukee.

Dwindling support for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race is also seen as a warning sign for Democrats, according to the Cook Political Report. moved staff from skinny Democrat to underdog last week after she found her lead over Republican Eric Hovde had shrunk from seven points to two points since August, although a Marquette Law School poll also released last week still found her there is a seven point lead.

Biden won Wisconsin by less than one point in 2020, flipping the state after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton there in 2016; former President Barack Obama won the state by decisive margins in both 2008 and 2012.

Tangent

Republicans control both the state Assembly and Senate in Wisconsin, and Democrat Tony Evers holds the governor’s office.

Key background

The race between Harris and Trump is effectively a dead heat, according to polls that show Trump has closed the gap in the polls after Harris led him in most polls taken in the weeks after she replaced Biden at the top of the list in July. Wisconsin is among seven swing states that will likely determine the winner of the 2024 election, joining Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. Winning three blue wall states—Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—is widely considered Harris’ clearest path to 270 electoral votes, assuming she also takes all the other states Biden won in 2020.

Further reading

2024 Election in Swing State Polls: Trump Maintains Lead in Arizona While Harris Holds Narrow Lead in Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump is against it. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris and Trump Near Tied in Latest Polls as Race Tightens (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Pennsylvania 2024 Polls: Harris Leads in Latest Poll in Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Michigan 2024 Polls: Harris Leads in Latest Poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Georgia Polls: Harris Surprisingly Leads by 1 Point in New Poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris North Carolina 2024 Polls: Trump Leads Harris (Forbes)