Duke vs. Miami football forecast: what analysts say

One of the few remaining undefeated teams in college football, No. 5 Miami returns home this weekend against Duke. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for this match using an analytical model that simulates games.

Miami remains undefeated after beating Florida State last week and ranks No. 1 nationally in scoring offense and No. 2 in passing offense.

Duke was on the verge of upsetting SMU, scoring 10 points or fewer in every Power Four game this season.

Ahead of this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions based on the Football Power Index computer forecasting model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, uses key analytics from both teams, and selects winners based on the predicted scoring differential per game.

As expected, the models give the Hurricanes a significant lead over the Blue Devils.

Miami is projected to win the game overwhelmingly. 90.7 percent from the latest computer simulations of the match.

These models have Duke as the projected winner in the remaining 9.3 percent Sims.

In total, Miami took the lead in 18,140 game simulations, while Duke passed the Canes in the remaining 1,860 projections.

And the index expects the Hurricanes to dominate the scoreboard over the Blue Devils as well.

Miami is predicted to be 20.4 points better than Duke on the same field with both teams’ current lineups, according to the latest model projection.

If so, it won’t be enough to cover the spread.

It’s because Miami Favorite with a rating of 20.5 points against Duke, according to updated numbers posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total on 54.5 points per game (Over -110, Under -110).

And that set the moneyline odds for Miami at -1600 and for the Duke in +860 win outright.

According to the latest game consensus, a lot of players currently give the Blue Devils a chance against the Hurricanes.

Duke becomes 64 percent bets on either winning the game outright in the event of a loss, or more likely to keep the final score below 3 touchdowns in the event of a loss.

Another 36 percent Betting Project Miami will win the game and cover the generous point spread.

Miami ranks first among ACC teams with 89 percent probability to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Hurricanes a projected win total of 12 games this season.

Duke is coming this weekend with 100 percent shot to qualify for the tournament in 2024.

And the overall forecast for the Blue Devils to win is 7.7 gamesaccording to the index.

College football Football Power Index (FPI) rankings and computer forecasting models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

The rankings and point projections are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games using a combination of key analytics including current results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and team schedule.

Teams are not ranked by talent, as in other rankings, but by projected point differential against the average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in brackets

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Pennsylvania
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYAU
10. Texas A&M
T-11. Clemson/Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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