Police have more resources, but solve fewer crimes – Daily Breeze

Here’s a potentially game-changing fact that was completely absent from the furious debate over Proposition 36 (the ballot measure that would have reversed many of Proposition 47’s criminal justice reforms): California has not gotten softer on crime in the reform era, but it has gotten tougher . .

A person arrested in California today is significantly more likely to go to prison (20.2%) than in 2013 (18.5%), the year before Prop. 47 was passed, or in 2010 (17.7%), before the reforms began. . This is evidenced by statistics from the California Department of Justice, local jails and state prisons.

District attorneys and judges in liberal counties (typically urban areas that vote Democratic) are no more lenient; they are more likely to jail those arrested than district attorneys and judges in conservative areas (those that consistently vote Republican). Both FBI And Association of Major Cities Police Chiefs The tables show that reported crime in California’s largest cities fell to record low in the first half of 2024.

So, are Californians wrong to believe that many people “get away with crime,” especially retail theft?

No. But everyone is wrong about why this is so.

The reason is that even though more resources providedlaw enforcement agencies throughout California solve far fewer crimes today than in the past. This means that district attorneys (both liberal and conservative) have far fewer arrestees to prosecute.

While district attorneys and courts have become tougher, police and sheriffs have become much softer on crime. Law enforcement crime detection (clearance) rates have fallen by more than half since 1990.

On average, each sworn officer today arrests nearly 70% fewer people than officers did 30 years ago. In 1990, the rank and file officer arrested 33 people; in 2010 – 19; there will be just 10 in 2023. The number of arrests per officer has dropped sharply, although falling crime in California leaves officers with hundreds of thousands fewer reported crimes to investigate each year. The reforms are not responsible for the growing inability of the police to solve crimes. Law enforcement crime clearance rates began to decline 20 years before California’s recent reforms began in 2010.

It remains a mystery why the effectiveness of law enforcement agencies has fallen so sharply even against the backdrop of a significant increase in funding and a decrease in the number of crimes solved. Today, Californians spend $230 per person per year on law enforcement in constant, inflation-adjusted dollars than they did in 1990.

What’s not a mystery: The reason the public believes people get away with crimes, especially retail theft and “smash-and-grab” car thefts. The police clearance rate has fallen from 21% of theft/theft crimes solved in 1990 to 15% in 2013 and just 8% today.

Comparing liberal San Francisco with conservative Kern County, which has only a slightly larger population, illustrates the confusion. In 2023, Kern County had 33% more violent crime, including 39% more murders, 233% more criminal assaults, 38% more shoplifting, 4% more commercial burglaries, 18% more. more vehicle thefts and nearly three times as many gun homicides. San Francisco, in turn, saw more robberies, residential burglaries, overdose deaths, and “smash-and-grab” thefts from vehicles.

Thus, Kern County has a much worse serious crime problem, with a particularly bad upward trend in violent crime (up 64% over the last decade), while violent crime is down in San Francisco (down 16%). . Additionally, Kern reports a significantly higher rate of retail theft (shoplifting and burglary) than San Francisco.

So why is San Francisco mercilessly pilloried statewide and nationally as suffering from an unparalleled crime scourge due to its “liberal” district attorneys and policies, while “conservative” Kern County is given a free pass? The conservative Kern County district attorney has a tough talk on crime, which appears to give her immunity from criticism that she is presiding over higher rates of violence and retail theft.

This double standard explains why the debate over Proposition 36 is so seriously misdirected. The problem is not justice reforms. Kern County law enforcement, which is subject to the same state laws, is twice as effective at making arrests for reported offenses as the San Francisco Police Department.