India to lose 24.7% of GDP by 2070 due to climate change: ADB: Rediff Moneynews

New Delhi, Oct 31 (PTI) Climate change under a high emissions scenario could lead to a 16.9 percent loss in GDP by 2070 in the Asia-Pacific region, with India projected to suffer a 24.7 percent loss in GDP. according to a new report.

Rising sea levels and declining productivity will lead to the most significant losses, with low-income countries and fragile economies hit hardest, the report says. New research presented in the first edition of ADB’s Asia-Pacific Climate Report details a range of devastating impacts threatening the region.

It says if the climate crisis continues to accelerate, up to 300 million people in the region could be at risk of coastal flooding, and trillions of dollars worth of coastal assets could suffer annual damage by 2070.

“Climate change has intensified the devastating effects of tropical storms, heat waves and floods in the region, contributing to unprecedented economic challenges and human suffering,” said ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa.

Urgent, well-coordinated action is needed to address these consequences before it is too late, he said.

This climate report provides insight into financing urgent adaptation needs and offers promising policy recommendations to our developing member governments on how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively, he added.

“By 2070, climate change under a high-emissions scenario could lead to an overall loss of 16.9 percent of GDP across the Asia-Pacific region. Much of the region will face losses of more than 20 percent.

“Among the countries and subregions assessed, these losses are concentrated in Bangladesh (30.5 percent), Vietnam (percent), Indonesia (percent), India (24.7 percent), “rest of Southeast Asia” (23.4 percent). Higher-income Southeast Asia (22 percent), Pakistan (21.1 percent), Pacific (18.6 percent) and Philippines (18.1 percent),” the report said.

It says developing Asia accounts for most of the increase in global greenhouse gas emissions since 2000. Although developed economies were the main emitters of greenhouse gases throughout the 20th century, emissions in developing Asia grew faster than in any other region in the first two decades. XXI century.

“Consequently, the region’s share of global emissions has risen from 29.4 percent in 2000 to 45.9 percent in 2021… Emissions in developing Asia continue to rise, led by China, which accounted for about 30 percent of global emissions. – says the ADB report.

The report notes that the region is home to 60 percent of the world’s population and per capita emissions are still below the global average.

Intense and more variable rainfall, as well as increasingly severe storms, will lead to more frequent landslides and flooding in the region, he said.

“This will be most noticeable in mountainous and steep areas such as the India-China border region, where landslides could increase by 30 to 70 percent with average global warming of 4.7 degrees Celsius. These outcomes will be further deteriorated by declines in slope-stabilizing forest cover, as forests unable to cope with new climate regimes suffer die-offs,” the report says.

Leading models show that the Asia-Pacific region could experience trillions of dollars in capital losses from river floods by 2070. Expected annual losses, based on economic growth, could reach US$1.3 trillion per year by 2070, affecting more than 110 million people annually. .

“India is reported to have the highest number of casualties and cost of damage, with residential losses predominating,” the report said.

GDP losses in 2070 due to lower productivity are estimated at 4.9 percent for the region, with tropical and subtropical regions hit hardest. These included “rest of Southeast Asia” (11.9 percent), India (11.6 percent), Pakistan (10.4 percent) and Vietnam (8.5 percent).

Increased river flooding under a high-emissions climate scenario is projected to result in a 2.2 percent GDP loss in the Asia-Pacific region in 2070.

Countries with mega-deltas suffer the most significant losses: Bangladesh, the “rest of Southeast Asia”, and Vietnam face GDP declines of 8.2%, 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively. Indonesia and India face an estimated GDP loss of 4 percent, the report said.