A red flag warning has been issued for almost all of New York City. What is the fire danger on weekends? – NBC New York

Fire danger in parts of the tri-state area is at an emergency level, prompting a red flag warning. The combination of extremely dry ground, low relative humidity and gusty winds creates ideal conditions for wildfires to start and spread quickly.

We’ve been talking about this for weeks: the fall has been exceptionally dry. There was only about an inch and a half of rain in September, most of which fell towards the end of the month. October was even drier, with not a drop of rain seen in Central Park for weeks.

As of October 26, all Connecticut State Parks are under an emergency fire ban. New Jersey is under Level 3 fire restrictions, which means charcoal burning is prohibited and all wildland fires are prohibited. Burning only permitted in an above-ground stove using propane, natural gas or electricity.

With the current extreme fire danger, no matter where you are, it’s best to be extra careful and avoid any use of fire outdoors, including campfires, grilling, or burning leaves. Also be extremely careful with cigarette ash and cigarette butts. Dispose of them properly to avoid fire.

Red flag warnings are issued when conditions conducive to fire growth reach critical levels. This is determined by taking into account relative humidity, maximum gusts of wind and the presence of dry brush.

The extreme fire danger comes from a cold front that moved through the region Friday morning, bringing much drier air to the region and significantly lowering our relative humidity, a measure of moisture content in the atmosphere. When relative humidity levels approach 30% or lower, the risk of fire increases dramatically. The drier the atmosphere, the higher the risk of fire.

The cold front also increases winds. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph along with gusts of up to 30 mph provide more than enough movement for fires to spread very quickly, making them difficult to contain.

But to start a fire, you need kindling. The fuel for bushfires is most often dry brush, and it is in abundance thanks to the staggering lack of rain this season.

Since climate records began in Central Park in 1869, there has never been an entire month without measurable rain. On Tuesday, the 29th day of October, we finally managed to accumulate the minimum measurable amount of rain: 0.01 inches.

But it was like this for the whole month. October 2024 officially became the driest calendar month on record, surpassing the previous record of 0.02 inches set more than 75 years ago in June 1949.

This near-dry October, preceded by a relatively miserable September, left us with a seasonal rainfall deficit of over 7 inches. We haven’t seen such a dry start to fall in over 130 years (for history buffs, Benjamin Harrison was president at the time).

And the lack of rain has a negative impact on vegetation, which is clearly visible in the progression of drought. At the beginning of September there was no drought in our area. According to the most recent drought monitor update on Oct. 31, the entire state of New Jersey is currently experiencing at least moderate drought, with more than 50% of that drought considered “severe.”

By comparison, New Jersey’s severe drought rate has not exceeded 50% since 2002.

Exceptionally dry conditions increase the amount of dry brush available, literally adding more fuel to our fires. This makes it easier for a fire to start and spread quickly.

And this fire danger will only get worse as rainfall deficits continue to grow. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days does not look promising.

Any rain we get won’t be enough to even begin to erase the deficit we find ourselves in. And until drought-inducing rain arrives, expect our fire concerns to continue.