The Hurricane Center is tracking the path of Caribbean systems. Florida influence?

A tropical depression likely to form next week with the gradual development of a system that continues to brew in the Caribbean.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say this. there is an 80% chance that a broad area of low pressure will develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next seven days. A system further east, near Puerto Rico, is moving east and could produce thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed by another system.

Meanwhile, another named storm occurs far away from Florida. Subtropical Storm Patty formed west of the Azores on Saturday morning.

What does all this mean for the coasts of the United States? There are a lot of “ifs” and hurricane strikes in November remain rare.

“The most reliable forecasts suggest that the western flank of this controlling high pressure will still extend over the Gulf, preventing the potential storm from moving west or northwest into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” said Ryan Trushala, forecaster and owner of Weathertiger , which provides reporting for the USA TODAY Network.

“A minority of model ensemble members have a faster, stronger frontal passage, in which case the storm, theoretically near the Yucatan or Cuba, could then turn northeast toward Florida by the end of next week or next weekend.”

In short, everything is clear for Florida and the US this weekend, but stay aware of the situation.

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The next Storm names are Rafael and Sarah.

Here are the details of what’s happening as of 8am on November 2nd:

Where is Subtropical Storm Patty located? Is the hurricane heading towards Florida?

Location: .39.9N, 34.4W, approximately 420 miles west-northwest of the Azores.Maximum sustained winds: 50 mphReal movement: East-southeast, speed 7 mph.Minimum central pressure: 986 MB

Subtropical Storm Patty was centered at about 39.9 degrees north latitude and 34.4 degrees west longitude. The storm is moving east-southeast at about 7 mph. A faster east-southeast movement is expected this evening, followed by a turn to the east and east-northeast on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are around 50 mph with higher gusts. A slight change in intensity is expected today, but a gradual weakening is forecast by early next week. Patty may become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday evening. Winds of 40 mph extend up to 205 miles from the center.

Hazards affecting the ground:

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible for parts of the Azores this weekend.

RAIN PRECIPITATION: Patti in the Azores is expected to receive 1 to 2 inches of rain through Sunday.

SURF: Waves generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next few days. These waves can cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

November brings tropical development to Florida, USA

Since 1851 Three hurricanes hit Florida in November.

While in the months leading up to the Atlantic hurricane season there are typically tropical waves off the African coast that warn people ahead of time as they cross the Atlantic, this is not the case during the final month of the season.

“As we move into early November, the focus of tropical development is shifting closer to the United States. Typically the focus late in the season is the Caribbean and the southeast coast,” DaSilva said.

A tropical depression could develop in the Caribbean later this week.

Southwestern Caribbean: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a widespread area of low pressure.

This system is expected to develop gradually and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves generally north-northwest over the central and western Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over parts of the surrounding western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba. Western Caribbean interests should monitor the development of this system.

Chance of formation after 48 hours: average, 60 percent.
Chance of formation after 7 days: high, 80 percent.

What else is there and how likely is it that it will intensify?

Near the Greater Antilles: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds extending from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northeast for several hundred miles is associated with a trough of low pressure.

Slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves west-northwestward into the Greater Antilles.

This system is expected to be absorbed by an area of low pressure over the Caribbean Sea by early next week. Regardless of developments, localized heavy rainfall is possible over the next few days in the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.

Chance of formation after 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Chance of formation after 7 days: low, 10 percent.

North Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of becoming organized near a low pressure system located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores.

Environmental conditions may allow further development today and tonight, and the system may become a brief subtropical to tropical storm as it moves east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. By the end of this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.

The interests of the Azores should monitor the development of this system.

Chance of formation after 48 hours: average, 60 percent.
Chance of formation after 7 days: average, 60 percent.

Who is most likely to get hurt?

Water in Caribbean islands remain quite warm To promote development in tropical regions, AccuWeather forecasters said Saturday morning.

The destructive wind called wind shearalso remain low in the region.

“Currently, the most likely broad area of tropical development will be over the western and central Caribbean, with development timing being Saturday through Tuesday,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Raynaud. This feature may first appear somewhere near the large northern Caribbean islands—perhaps Jamaica.”

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

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When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?

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(This story has been updated to add new information.)