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Invest in a 97L disturbance in the Caribbean that could develop into a tropical depression in the next few days

Invest in a 97L disturbance in the Caribbean that could develop into a tropical depression in the next few days

An incipient weather disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean looks increasingly likely as if it will develop into at least tropical depressionAccording to the National Hurricane Center.

The system, now designated Invest 97L It was still just a cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean over the weekend, according to the NHC.

But gradual development is expected over the next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves across the central and western Caribbean, according to the NHC. Three Hurricane Hunter flights are scheduled on 97L on Sunday and Monday.

Prospects for an area in the southwestern Caribbean.
(Weather FOX)


WHAT IS “INVEST”?

With a subtropical system in the North Atlantic. earn the name Patty early on Saturday morningIf this disturbance in the Caribbean reaches tropical storm strength, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic list will be Raphael.

“The consensus among computer forecast model forecasts is that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday,” says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist. Brian Norcross. “A dense plume of tropical moisture is forecast to turn north along with a potential storm. This will increase the threat of flooding on Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico starting Monday. Some moisture could reach South Florida by midweek.”

But Norcross says once the system is in the Gulf, the forecast will become unclear due to weaker steering currents that add uncertainty to the forecast.

“If the system remains relatively weak, it will likely drift westward, possibly toward the Mexican coast,” Norcross said. “However, if it ends up on the stronger side, it could continue to move north toward some of the U.S. Gulf Coast.”

But the storm could still face hostile atmospheric conditions if it tries to approach the U.S., with more dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and unfavorable winds at upper levels.

“So even if it’s possible (Rafael could strengthen in the southern Gulf), a severe storm on the coast looks unlikely based on what we know now,” Norcross said, adding that if the system ever makes landfall, At the current stage of the schedule, it will happen sometime next weekend.

“Clearly we have another week of watching the tropics, although the likelihood of a major storm hitting the U.S. appears to be low,” he said. “Forecasts for next week are, of course, always vague, so stay tuned.”

BRIAN NORCROSS: CONSISTENT FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL SYSTEM HEADING TOWARDS THE GULF NEXT WEEK

Another disturbance near the Caribbean Sea could combine with 97L.

NHC is also monitoring an area of ​​low pressure near the northeastern Caribbean Sea, but there is little chance of this system developing over the next week.

The monitoring area in the Caribbean Sea will move north-northwest over the coming days.
(Weather FOX)


“Some heavy tropical showers will affect the northeastern Caribbean islands over the next few days as the system moves west,” Norcross said. “Next week this will likely be consumed by the developing unrest in the Caribbean.”

The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a slim chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next few days. Even if that happens, however, it won’t change the weather forecast, Norcross said.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

North Atlantic: Welcome Subtropical Storm Patty

In the North Atlantic the powerful storm became Subtropical Storm Patty.The National Hurricane Center reported Saturday morning.

Subtropical Storm Patty.
(Weather FOX)


Patty sustained winds of 65 mph and was located about 300 miles west/northwest of the Azores, according to the NHC.

Storm previously designated Invest 96L, It is expected to maintain its current strength Saturday before gradually weakening Sunday, possibly becoming a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday evening, according to the NHC.

Remnants of the storm could eventually reach Portugal and western Spain early next week.