Iowa as a swing state? Iowa polls show Harris and Trump in tight race

From employee reports
| Des Moines Register

Could red Iowa turn purple again as a presidential swing state?

New Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Saturday evening shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 3 percentage points in the state, 47% to 44% – a result that suggests Iowa is in the game as Election Day quickly approaches.

However, neither campaign viewed Iowa and its six Electoral College delegates as desirable candidates.

Harris and Trump have made repeated visits to the seven swing states this cycle – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – where campaigns and political pundits have believed for months that either candidate has a chance to win each state.

Neither Harris nor Trump have campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primary, and neither campaign has established a ground presence in the state, according to Des Moines Register chief political reporter Brianna Pfannenstiel.

Why aren’t campaigns targeting Iowa?

It was widely believed that Trump would emerge victorious. In 2016, he beat U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton by 9 percentage points to defeat national winner Joe Biden in Iowa.8 points in 2020.

His campaign also spent 2023 building a strong state structure that would ensure Win with 30 percent points in the Caucasus in Iowa in January, it was the largest margin in the 48-year history of the Republican presidential caucuses.

How close is the competition in the battleground states compared to Iowa?

Among seven states of the battlefieldthe biggest spread in Real Clear Politics rolling poll average is Trump’s lead by 2.7 percentage points in Arizona. The smallest spread is Harris’ lead of just one-tenth of a percent in Wisconsin.

Harris’ 3 percentage point lead in the new Iowa poll is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. October 28-31.

What puts Iowa in the game now?

The poll shows that women, especially those 65 and older and those who consider themselves independent, are leading the shift to Harris. Older women support Harris over Trump 63% to 28%, and women who are political independents support Harris 57% to 29%.

Trump maintains a significant difference with the groups that are the core of his base: men, rural Iowans and those who call themselves evangelicals.

Was Iowa a swing state before Trump won again?

Yes. This reputation was strengthened by the 2000 and 2004 races, when there were minimal differences and disagreements between the two parties.

Democratic Vice President Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 over the eventual national winner, Republican George W. Bush, by about 4,000 votes, or 0.3%. Then, four years later, in another squeaker, Bush got his revenge, defeating his Democratic rival, U.S. Senator John Kerry, by 10,000 votes, or 0.7%.

But the state flipped back again in 2008 when Democrat Barack Obama took Iowa by storm. The freshman U.S. senator from neighboring Illinois put together a solid ground game en route to victory in the Iowa caucuses over former U.S. Sen. John Edwards and early favorite Clinton. Obama won by 10 percentage points over Republican Senator John McCain.

Obama then won Iowa again in 2012, defeating Republican Mitch Romney by 6 percentage points. But Trump followed that up with a victory, putting Iowa back in the Republican column.

So is Iowa’s red state status turning purple again?

Even if Harris were to pull off a surprise victory on Tuesday and Democrats did well at the ballot box, it would be difficult to argue that Iowa is anything other than red Republican.

Republican Governor Kim Reynolds won her second full term in 2022 by 19 percentage points. Republicans have supermajorities in the Iowa Senate and Iowa House of Representatives.

A quiet night from Democrats on Tuesday could reduce gains but is not expected to lead to a change in control. And Iowa heads to Election Day with an all-Republican congressional delegation: both U.S. senators, none of whom are seeking re-election this year, and all four members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Cook Political Report analysts said thatcalled the 1st and 3rd districts a “toss-up” but expect Republicans to be re-elected in the 2nd and 4th districts.