Key swing states to watch in the 2024 US election – and why they matter

3 November 2024, 07:00 | Updated: November 3, 2024, 07:31

Several states will play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the 2024 US elections.

These are the “swing states”: so named because they will help swing the overall outcome either towards the Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, or away from Ms Harris and towards her Republican opponent – and former President – Donald Trump.

Most states are not swing states and will not change hands in this election, but safe states alone are not enough to put either Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump in the White House.

Here are seven swing states to watch.

All but one of the candidates were won by President Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2020, but all are being seriously contested by Trump in this election.

Pennsylvania

Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, confounding those who thought it would be a Democratic stronghold, as has been the case in every election since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992.

Joe Biden narrowly returned victory to Democrats in 2020, but polls show the result this year is on a knife’s edge.

A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win the US presidential election, with each state allocated a fixed number of votes based roughly on its population.

Whoever wins the popular vote in a state also receives all of that state’s electoral votes (with two exceptions, Maine and Nebraska, where votes are split at the county and state levels).

With 19 electoral votes up for grabs in Pennsylvania, this is a key goal for both candidates.

But with the huge number of mail-in and early votes that will need to be sorted and counted, the result is unlikely to be clear for some time.

In 2020, Biden wasn’t called to the state until four days after Election Day. –

Michigan

Like Pennsylvania, it was part of the “blue wall” of states that voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012.

Trump’s victory in 2016 was tiny – just 0.2 percentage points – but symbolized the scale of his success in turning working-class voters away from his opponent Hillary Clinton, especially in a state that Barack Obama won by nine percentage points in 2012.

Joe Biden carried the state for Democrats in 2020, trailing Trump by nearly three points, but polls suggest he will be much closer this time.

There are 15 electoral votes involved.

Wisconsin

This is another blue wall state that narrowly went to the Republicans and Donald Trump in 2016, and then again, by the same narrow margin, to the Democrats and Joe Biden in 2020.

As with Pennsylvania and Michigan, the result in Wisconsin may not be clear for days due to the large number of mail and early votes that will need to be sorted and counted.

There are ten electoral votes available here.

Arizona

In 2020, Joe Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996.

This represents a major turnaround from 2016, when Donald Trump led Hillary Clinton in the state by more than three percentage points.

Biden’s victory was very narrow, and the state looks like a nail-biter again this year, with polls showing the result too close to predict.

Arizona is worth 11 electoral votes.

Nevada

Nevada has won Democratic victories in every presidential election since 1992, often by narrow margins. This year it may be closer than ever as polls show the race is virtually tied.

Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by just over two percentage points.

Nevada doesn’t offer a huge number of electoral votes – six – but in a close race, a win here could be decisive, helping either Ms Harris or Mr Trump reach the White House.

North Carolina

It is the only swing state on the list that Donald Trump won in 2020, although the result was close, with Trump taking 49.9% of the vote to Joe Biden’s 48.6%.

North Carolina hasn’t been won by a Democrat since Barack Obama carried the state in 2008, the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Once again, polls this year point to a tight race to win the valuable 16 electoral votes.

North Carolina is the swing state that is likely to report quick results on election night and thus provide an early indication of how both Ms Harris and Mr Trump are faring.

Georgia

Joe Biden in 2020 became the first Democrat to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992.

Barack Obama never came close to winning, and Donald Trump won by more than five percentage points in 2016.

The result in 2020 was so close that a recount was held, the result of which was not certified until two weeks after Election Day.

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Just 0.3 percentage points separate Biden from Trump.

Like North Carolina, the state gives its winner 16 electoral votes, and polls here as elsewhere point to another incredibly close race.

But polls are just snapshots, not predictions, and ultimately the outcome in places like Georgia may come down to which side can get more of its supporters to turn out and vote.