Whom do the markets support in the US elections?

For some market power players, the “worst possible outcome of the US presidential election” is victory Kamala Harrissaid Katie Martin at FT. The Democratic candidate’s narrowing or even disappearing lead in public opinion polls – coupled with a “big rise in bets” on her opponent in the betting markets – “was enough to convince a significant portion of macro hedge fund managers that Donald Trump was on his way back to the White House.”

Despite all this, political cranks still believe that elections are “coin toss“and that betting markets are “unrepresentative and are best ignored.” BlackRock chief Larry Fink, meanwhile, argues that the election result “really doesn’t matter to the markets” – a relaxed position that, it’s fair to say, is not universal. Many people believe that Trump policy imposing “aggressive tariffs on imports” and launching a “crackdown on immigration” are inflationary and will have a large impact on bond markets. “For hedges who hold this view, the Trump deal is a great deal.”