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Here’s who’s leading in key 2024 election battlegrounds

Here’s who’s leading in key 2024 election battlegrounds

Topline

The race in swing states between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied: The final New York Times pre-election poll showed Harris leading in four of seven states, Trump leading in one and a tie in two others, although polling averages show that no candidate is ahead by more than 2.5 points in any of the seven battlegrounds.

Key facts

Pennsylvania: It couldn’t be closer: The candidates were split 48% by both the New York Times and Siena. survey (error 3.5 points) and the Morning Consult survey, as well as three another communications last week, while Harris has a 50%-48% lead in Marist vote and 48–47% in the Washington Post. voteand she is ahead 49%-48% in large Collaborative Election Study poll, although Trump was up 47%-46% on Wednesday Quinnipiac vote. Trump leads Harris by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight rankings average poll.

Georgia: Harris leads 48%-47% in New York Times/Siena poll and Trump rises 50%-48% in Morning Consult poll, while Trump holds 48%-47% lead Thursday CNN/SSRS Poll (margin of error 4.7), and in the CES survey (2663 respondents) it rose by a more significant 51%-46%. Trump leads by 1.5 points in FiveThirtyEight rankings average poll.

Michigan: Harris and Trump are tied at 47% at New York Times/Siena. surveyalthough Harris is up 49%-48% over Morning consultation survey and 51%-48% in Marist survey along with three another polls that Harris is leading while Trump has a rare lead Washington Post Poll A report released Thursday shows him with a 47%-45% rating among registered voters and a 49%-48% lead in the poll. Emerson’s Study published on Tuesday (error 3 points). Harris added 0.7 points for Michigan in the FiveThirtyEight tournament. average poll.

Wisconsin: Harris leads 49%-47% at New York Times/Siena. vote50%-48% at Marist survey50%-47% in CES survey (1542 respondents), 51%-45% in CNN/SSRS Poll and 50%-49% in Marquette Pollwhile Trump has a lead of about one point (rounded to 48%-48%), according to Morning consultationTrump is up 49% to 48% in Emerson’s ratings. surveyand both candidates are tied at 48% in the Quinnipiac poll. vote. Harris added 0.8 points in the FiveThirtyEight tournament average.

Nevada: New York Times/Siena vote shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 46%, while Emerson vote The report released Friday showed Harris ahead 48%-47% (margin of error 3.6 points), and she was up 51%-47% at CES. survey (933 respondents), although according to the CNN/SSRS rating Trump is ahead by 48-47%. survey published on Tuesday (error 4.6 points). Trump leads by 0.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s rankings average poll.

Arizona: Trump leads 49%-45% at New York Times/Siena. voteit’s up 51% to 47% in the CES survey (2,066 respondents) and leads 50% to 49% in Marist. vote released October 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49-46% at Washington Post-Schar School. vote (error 5), while Morning consultation shows a 48%-48% tie, with Harris leading 48%-47% in CNN/SSRS Poll will be released this week (error 4.4). Trump up 2.6 points in FiveThirtyEight rankings average poll.

Large number

1 point. That’s Harris’ lead in the national FiveThirtyEight poll. average.

Tangent

According to new HarrisX/Forbes poll There’s a statistical tie Thursday, but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there’s plenty of room for the race to change.

Key background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 amid an internal party uprising following his debate performance, a dramatic reversal of Democrats’ fortunes. Before the shift, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of seven (except North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump is against it. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Lead in Four New Polls (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Michigan 2024 Polls: Harris Leads by Slim in One of Its Most Important States (Forbes)

2024 Trump-Harris Pennsylvania polls: Harris leads by less than 1 point in polling averages (Forbes)

Trump-Harris North Carolina 2024 Polls: New Seventh Swing State Near a Tie (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Georgia 2024 Polls: Most Polls Show Trump Leading in Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Nevada Polls: Harris Has Slight Lead, But Struggling with Latino Voters (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Polls in Wisconsin 2024: Latest Polls Show Trump with Slight Lead (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Arizona 2024 Polls: Trump Has Lead in Latest Poll in Swing State (Forbes)