5 Things to Watch for in the Battle for Congress

The close and uncertain battle for the White House has taken center stage this year. But Congress will play an important role in implementing (or blocking) the next president’s agenda, and the fight for legislative power is approaching a decisive moment.

Both parties only need to gain a few seats to redistrict each chamber, with Republicans currently controlling the House and Democrats controlling the Senate with a slim majority.

Senate Republicans need to gain two seats to gain an outright majority, or just one seat if former President Donald Trump also wins the White House, since the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats need to win just four seats to take control of the chamber. maybe they can win the House of Representatives even if Vice President Kamala Harris loses the White House. Control of the House could also be unclear for days, with several battleground seats in slow-to-count California.

As the battle for Congress comes to a close, here are five things to watch:

1. Will there be ticket distributors?

Both parties will rely on a shrinking pool of voters who will split their tickets between the presidential race and close-ballot contests.

In the Senate, two Democrats are running for re-election in states Trump is expected to carry: Jon Tester from Montana And Sherrod Brown from Ohio. Both have relied on ticket distributors in the past to leverage their personal brands and appeal to working-class voters.

But Republicans are betting that both states have moved too far to the right for Tester and Brown to defeat their Republican opponents, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy and businessman Bernie Moreno.

(West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is expected to easily win the Republican Senate seat in his state, where independent-turned Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin has decided not to seek re-election.)

Ticket splitters could also play a huge role in the race for the House of Representatives, where many competitive districts are in states that are not presidential battlegrounds such as New York and California. There are 16 Republicans seeking re-election in districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020. While there are some signs that Trump may be outperforming his 2020 performance in these counties, especially in blue states like New YorkRepublicans may have to hold some of Harris’ districts to maintain their House majority. Five Democratic incumbents are also running in districts Trump carried in 2020, making them top GOP targets this year.

2. How might a presidential race have a strike on the ballot?

The race for the White House is expected to have a significant impact on the presidential race, especially in persistent battlegrounds.

Democrats are defending five Senate seats in presidential battlegrounds, including two open races in Arizona And Michigan. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Jacky Rosen of Nevada are also seeking re-election.

Their fates may be closely connected with the presidential race. In 2020, only one senator, Maine Republican Susan Collins, won re-election because her state voted for the opposite party for president. In 2016, every state supported the same party in the presidential and Senate elections. And this year, Harris and Biden have become key themes in congressional Republicans’ closing argument ads. (More on this below.)

Some candidates, such as Casey and Republican Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, tried to find a balance ranking at the top of their lists, appearing alongside their parties’ presidential candidates on the campaign trail, and highlighting areas of disagreement.

Some of these Senate candidates, like Nevada’s Rosen, were able to get ahead of Harrisas their GOP opponents struggled to gain momentum. But the Senate race in these battlegrounds has tightened significantly in recent days as the presidential races in these states are a coin toss.

These battlegrounds also host competitive House races, such as Pennsylvania’s 7th District located in Allentown, which is also presidential leaderand the 10th District in Harrisburg, where former leader of the Freedom faction is in defense.

3. Which issues will win?

Like the race for president, the congressional race is focused on issues that voters often consider decisive for their votes: the economy, immigration, abortion and democracy. But at the end of the election, both parties focused their closing arguments on two different issues.

Democratic candidates in the most competitive House and Senate races have focused on abortion in many of their final ads, seeking to exploit an issue that has sustained the party since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade more than two years ago. Democrats also believe ballot initiatives that would enshrine abortion rights in some key battlegrounds could bolster their candidates, even though the survey showed a big gap between these measures and the Democratic candidates.

The second most mentioned topic in Democrats’ final announcements last week was immigration as Democrats seek to counter GOP attacks on the issue, followed by health care, bipartisanship and taxes.

The most talked-about Republican topic on air last week was immigration, which was often mentioned along with other topics such as transgender women in women’s sports as they try to paint Democrats as extremists. Other frequently mentioned topics include Harris, taxes, Biden and character, highlighting how Republicans have tried to nationalize these congressional races.

4. Can Republicans overcome the Democrats’ huge financial advantage?

Republicans have long been concerned about Democrats’ huge fundraising advantages in House and Senate elections. Democrats saw fundraising as a boon when Harris took control of the ticket, which flooded election campaigns with cash as she also broke fundraising records.

This allowed Democratic candidates to dominate the airwaves, spreading their positive messages and launching early attacks on their GOP opponents. While Republicans have received support from outside groups, those groups are charged higher rates for advertising, so their money doesn’t go as far.

Nearly $1.6 billion has been spent on advertising during the Senate race since Labor Day, with Democrats spending $803 million and Republicans spending $758 million, according to AdImpact.

In every Senate race, the Democratic candidate outsold his opponent in campaign advertising. But Republicans have used big-spending outside groups to take leading spending positions in some key races, such as the tight race in Ohio, where Republicans collectively spent $185 million to Democrats’ $143 million.

More than $1 billion was also spent on advertising during the House race after Labor Day, with Democrats spending $615 million versus $448 million for Republicans, according to AdImpact. And Democratic candidates and outside groups outspent Republicans in 17 of the 20 House races that spent the most on advertising this fall.

5. Will there be any surprises?

Contests in the House of Representatives and Senate you can also see some unexpected results on election night.

One of the most surprising developments on the Senate map is the competitive race in Nebraska, pitting Independent Dan Osborne against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.

The race has led to some spending delays in the Cornhusker State, with Republicans keen to support Fisher as she tries to close the gap with Trump, who is expected to easily win the state.

Since Labor Day, Osbourne has spent $9.8 million on advertising, while Fisher has spent $3.5 million. And outside groups increased their spending after Labor Day, with independent retired political PACs spending more than $13 million.

Democrats continue to invest in Texas, where Democratic Rep. Colin Allred faces GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, and are also considering a possible surge in investment in Florida, where former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is challenging Republican Sen. parts to Rick Scott. .

Allred has led the ad spending race since Labor Day, shelling out more than $50 million to Cruz. US$27 million. The Senate Majority PAC, the main Democratic outside group involved in Senate races, contributed. $12.2 million in the race so far through its subsidiary WinSenate in effort to support Allred’s campaign by focusing on abortion advertising.

In the Maryland Senate race, Republicans tried to make a comeback by hiring former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan to run for the open seat. Hogan made the race unusually competitive for a typically blue state, but Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks outspent Hogan in advertising spending, putting in more than $10 million on air, with Hogan spending an estimated $3.2 million.

Republicans increased their ad spending in Maryland after Labor Day, thanks in large part to pro-Hogan super PAC Maryland’s Future, which spent more than $25 million supporting Hogan on air.