US Election 2024: The man who correctly predicted 9 out of 10 polls insists Kamala Harris will defeat Trump

• Historian Allan Lichtman predicts Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential race.
• Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House forecasting model is highly accurate, missing only one election in ten.
• Despite the fluctuating poll numbers, Lichtman remains steadfast in his forecast, ignoring the impact of surprises.
• Facing unprecedented hostility over his forecast, Lichtman expressed concern about the stability of American democracy and global democratic decline.

Didakus Malova, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, has more than three years of reporting experience policy and current events in Kenya.

Noted historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman made waves with his latest forecast, predicting a victory for Democratic Party nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.

Lichtman, whose forecasting record includes nine correct predictions out of the last 10 elections, remains confident in his forecast for a Republican victory. Donald Trump lose the 2024 presidential race.

In an interview with CNN, Lichtman expressed confidence that Harris will win on Election Day.

He acknowledged that while Harris’ lead in battleground states has fluctuated, it hasn’t affected his forecast.

Known for his sharp accuracy in calling presidential elections, Lichtman made his only mistake in 2000 when he predicted Democrat Al Gore would win the presidential race, a race that was ultimately won by George W. Bush.

Lichtman said public opinion polls and recent events that could influence voters’ opinions have little bearing on his proven approach.

Reflecting on his 2016 forecast, he noted that despite Trump’s controversial remarks about women just weeks before the election, he has not changed his forecast.

“Nothing has changed – the biggest myth in American politics is the so-called October surprise. Before this, I always made my forecasts and never changed them. In 2016, for example, we had our biggest October surprise when Donald Trump bragged about Tate.” about sexual assault on women and a lot of women saying yes he did this to me, even the Republicans said he was done, I didn’t change my prediction for Trump to win, which as you can imagine didn’t make me. very popular,” he said.

Why Lichtman is concerned about the 2024 elections

The historian recounted the intense backlash he received this election cycle, noting that his prediction of a Harris victory generated significant hostility.

“I have never experienced the kind of hatred that I brought upon myself this time, and it made me very nervous. My family was in danger. We have received notification. It’s incredibly frustrating for the police that we had to reinforce to secure our home,” Lichtman shared.

Although he stands by his forecast, Lichtman expressed deep concern about the health of American democracy.

Citing what he calls a global trend of democratic decline, Lichtman expressed concern about the political climate in the United States:

“Unfortunately, the trend of this century has been the decline of democracy around the world, and I worry about our country,” he added.

How does the Lichtman forecasting system work?

Lichtman’s forecasting model, known as the “13 Keys to the White House,” assesses the political landscape through a set of true or false statements, each representing a factor that could influence the outcome of an election.

If six or more of these clues are false, the other party is likely to win.

This approach consistently determined his accurate forecasts, making Lichtman a respected figure in election forecasting.

“I don’t have a crystal ball, I’m not Speaker Mike Johnson who thinks he has a connection with the Almighty, my system is based on history, it’s very reliable, but it’s always possible, you can’t know it in advance what will happen what “something so catastrophic and unprecedented that it will disrupt the pattern of history,” Lichtman said.

Obama campaigns for Harris

Former US President Barack Obama gave a speech in support of Harrisstating that she has people’s interests at heart.

He denounced Trump’s campaign plan to make people believe the country is divided to boost his election chances.

Obama urged Americans not to elect leaders who do not respect them and do not consider them fellow citizens with equal rights to opportunity.

Source: TUKO.co.ke