Ohio State vs. Purdue Football Prediction: What Analysts Say

Big Ten football kicks off this weekend when No. 3 Ohio State returns home against Purdue. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for this match, made using an expert model that simulates games.

Ohio State improved to 7-1 on the year with a blowout win over Penn State and cemented its place at the top of the Big Ten hierarchy as playoff qualifying approaches.

Purdue is out of luck, sitting 0-5 in Big Ten play and ranking 119th in offensive efficiency, having lost seven straight games to start the season.

Ahead of this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions based on the Football Power Index computer forecasting model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, uses key analytics from both teams, and selects winners based on the predicted scoring differential per game.

It’s safe to say the models largely sided with the Buckeyes over the Boilermakers this week.

Ohio State is a big home favorite and takes the lead the vast majority of the time. 99 percent from the latest computer simulations of the match.

That leaves Purdue as the projected winner in the remaining 1 percent Sims.

How does this affect the predicted winnings of the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 41.2 points better than Purdue on the same field with both teams’ current lineups, according to the model’s latest projection.

If so, that would be more than enough to cover the spread.

This is because Ohio is Favorite with a rating of 38.5 points against Purdue, according to updated numbers posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel has set the amount at 53.5 points per game (Over -110, Under -110).

According to the latest consensus spread projections, a slight majority of bettors expect the Boilermakers to keep the game closer to the Buckeyes.

Purdue becomes 55 percent bets to either win outright as a result of failure, or, more likely, to keep the difference within a generous point spread.

Another 45 percent bettors expect Ohio State to win the game and cover the big spread.

Ohio State ranks second among Big Ten teams with Probability 91.3 percent to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Buckeyes a total win projection. 11 games this season.

Purdue is almost done, there are forecasts for victory 1.2 games and was mathematically disqualified from participating in the cup.

College football Football Power Index (FPI) rankings and computer forecasting models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

The rankings and point projections are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games using a combination of key analytics including current results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and team schedule.

Teams are not ranked by talent, as in other rankings, but by projected point differential against the average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in brackets

Oregon (62)
Georgia
Ohio
Miami
Texas
Penn State
Tennessee
Indiana
BYU
Notre Dame
Alabama
Boise State
SMU
LSU
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Iowa
Army
Clemson
Washington State
Colorado
Kansas
Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt
Louisville

When: Saturday, November 9.
Time: 12:00 pm Eastern Time.
TV: Fox Network

–

Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 ratings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: Bookmark | Ratings | Choice