2024 exit polls: How the gender gap is playing out in key swing states

The gender gap is considered a decisive factor in presidential elections between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Both candidates have tried to turn the divide to their advantage, with Harris making reproductive freedom a centerpiece of her campaign, while Trump focused on motivating men to get to the polls.

Men and women have long voted differently in presidential races, with the gender gap in exit polls averaging 19 points since 1996. But several pollsters told ABC News they are bracing for a “gender gap” this year, given the contrast between men and women. at the top of the list, as well as the prominence of abortion rights as an issue since the fall of Roe v. Wade.

Preliminary results exit poll datawhich may change as polls are updated throughout election night, provides some insight into voting preferences among men and women.

Nationally, Harris has a 10-point lead over women — 54% to Trump’s 44% — but her support is 3 points lower than the group’s support for President Joe Biden in 2020.

Trump, meanwhile, leads by an identical 10-point margin among men.

There is also a huge gender gap between young men (who are roughly evenly split between Harris and Trump 49%-47%) and young women, who support Harris by 26 points.

ABC News is not predicting the winner of these races.

Georgia

In Georgia, early results show Harris holding a 7-point lead among women over Trump, with 53% support to Trump’s 46% support.

Compared to 2020 exit polls, Harris trails Biden slightly among women. Women supported Biden by 9 percentage points. Ultimately, Biden flipped the state blue for the first time in decades, defeating Trump there by a narrow margin of less than 12,000 votes.

Trump has a 12-point lead over men in Georgia, with early results showing 55% to Harris’ 43%. This is the same gap he had in the 2020 election against Biden.

Among younger voters, ages 18 to 29, women favor Harris by 29 points. Meanwhile, Trump’s lead among men in the same age group is just 2 points.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, early results show women favoring Harris by 13 points and men favoring Trump by 15 points.

This is a much wider gender gap than in the state in 2020, according to exit polls. There, Biden won women by 7 points, and Trump won men by 9 points.

Among younger voters, Harris leads among women by 33 points, while Trump leads by 23 points among men.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, a battleground seen as a possible tipping point, Harris leads among women by 12 points: 55% compared to Trump’s 43%.

Trump’s lead among men is slightly higher: He has 14 points among men: 56% compared to Harris’ 42%.

Again, preliminary exit poll results show a wider gender gap between Harris and Trump than between Biden and Trump. In 2020, women preferred Biden by 11 points, while men preferred Trump by 11 points.

Women ages 18 to 29 favor Harris by a 40-point margin, while Trump leads among men that age by 24 points.

Arizona

In Arizona, women support Harris by 3 points: 51% to 48% for Trump.

Trump, meanwhile, boasts a larger lead among men, with 52% support from the group compared to Harris’ 45% support.

It’s also a wider gender gap than in 2020, when Biden won women by 3 points and Trump men by 2 points.

Michigan

Early results show Harris boasting an 8-point lead among women in the battleground state: 53% compared to Trump’s 45%.

Trump leads among men by 11 points: 54% compared to Harris’ 43%.

Among young voters ages 18 to 29, Harris leads women by 16 points, while Trump leads men by 20 points, according to preliminary results.

Wisconsin

Harris leads women in Wisconsin by 11 points: 55% compared to 44% for Trump. In 2020, she trails Biden’s 13-point lead among women slightly.

Trump leads among men by 9 points: 54% compared to 45% for Harris. Trump won the state by 10 points among men in 2020.

Among younger voters ages 18 to 29, Harris leads women by 18 points, while Trump leads among men by 5 points, according to preliminary results.

Nevada

In Nevada, Harris wins among women with 53% to Trump’s 43%—a 10-point difference.

Early results show Trump winning men by a slightly wider margin: 55% to 41%.