How Trump’s victory on the eve of COP29 could impact US climate commitments and support for India’s green transition

New Delhi: Donald Trump as the next US president does not bode well for the deepening climate crisis, environmentalists say. As the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP29, approaches in Baku, Azerbaijan, environmentalists, politicians and climate experts are concerned that America under Trump will renege on its commitments and undermine policies in the field of climate change.

“A Trump victory would be a profound blow to global climate justice and an alarming escalation of climate risk for the world’s most vulnerable communities,” Harjeet Singh, climate activist and director of global engagement at the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said in a statement. .

Trump’s record during his first tenure in the White House does not inspire much confidence. In 2020, the United States, under the leadership of a Republican leader, withdrew from the Paris Agreement on climate change. Calling the agreement unfair, Trump said the document allows countries like India and China to continue using fossil fuels while imposing severe restrictions on the United States.

This decision was reversed when Joe Biden took office. But Trump has warned that if elected, he will withdraw from the Paris climate accords aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. He also said he would reverse President Biden’s outgoing electric vehicle policies.

Just hours after winning trends began to emerge, senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh tweeted about the uncertainty over the status of the Paris Agreement after Trump takes power.

“But what is certain is that the future of the 2015 Paris climate change agreement, which America joined under President Biden, is now extremely shaky. If US withdraws troops again it will be a disaster,” Ramesh tweeted.

Donald Trump has staged a surprising comeback. No doubt why and how this happened will be analyzed in detail over the next few weeks, as will the question of what this comeback means for the US and the rest of the world. But what is certain is that the future…

— Jairam Ramesh (@Jairam_Ramesh) November 6, 2024

Possible implications for climate solutions

Experts are also concerned that Trump 2.0 will impact America’s participation in the upcoming UN climate talks. At COP29, to be held in Baku from November 12 to 22, world leaders will discuss the climate agenda for the coming year and review countries’ commitments under the Paris Agreement.

“His push to ramp up fossil fuel production, disregard for international agreements and refusal to provide climate finance will worsen the crisis, threatening lives and livelihoods, especially in the regions least responsible for climate change but most affected by it,” Singh said.

He added that as COP29 talks begin in Baku next week and aim to achieve an ambitious new climate finance target, a Trump victory would make the path to consensus, already difficult, steeper and more uncertain.

India could see bilateral investment in clean energy projects

Trump’s past statements criticizing climate finance mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund as a wealth-sharing scheme biased against the United States also add to doubts about America’s position on committing funds to international climate efforts under his leadership.

Experts, however, noted that based on recent experience, India may see some bilateral and private investment in green projects. In 2018, the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) committed US$350 million to ReNew Power, one of India’s largest renewable energy companies.

Arunabha Ghosh, director general of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), said in a statement that the proposed trade barriers will require careful navigation to ensure that Indian industries, especially those using clean energy technologies, are not harmed. India currently exports 90 percent of its solar modules to the US.

Over the next four years, India needs to be prepared and strategically flexible to deepen green trade, jointly develop clean technology supply chains and accelerate the energy transition, he said.

However, politicians ThePrint spoke to acknowledged that under Kamala Harris, India could expect more funding for its transition needs.

They said it was unclear whether India could expect continued financial support for low-carbon projects in addition to the Quad’s climate finance initiatives if Trump came to power.

Under Biden’s leadership, the US administration has worked with India, Japan and Australia to coordinate regional climate finance strategies to increase funding for climate-resilient projects in India and the Indo-Pacific.

In 2021, Biden announced the US-India Partnership for Climate and Clean Energy 2030 to mobilize climate finance for India’s renewable energy and climate adaptation goals.

“Climate impacts have devastated every part of the world, and climate change is much more visible as a determining factor in global chaos. No government can afford to ignore a multilateral approach to address the challenges of the global commons,” Aarti Khosla, director of Climate Trends, a capacity-building research initiative, said in a statement.

(Editing by Radifa Kabira)