How the Buccaneers will test the 49ers’ defense this week

The 49ers are expected to dominate Tampa Bay this Sunday.

They are 5.5 point favorites. They have a bye week and Tampa will suffer a grueling overtime loss on Monday night. Christian McCaffrey could make his season debut. And the Buccaneers have lost three games in a row.

Still, this could still be a tough game for the 49ers, especially their defense.

The Bucs currently have the fifth-ranked offense in the NFL. And while they’re missing both of their star receivers – Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – they’re still averaging 5.1 yards per carry, fourth-best in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the run defense is an issue for the 49ers. Their defensive rating in Pro Football Focus ranks 26th out of 32 teams and their tackling rate is 20th.

Just a few weeks ago, we saw the Chiefs beat the 49ers without starting-caliber receivers. Patrick Mahomes didn’t even play particularly well in that game. And yet, the Chiefs scored 28 points against the 49ers by simply running the ball between tackles with Kareem Hunt, making big hits to wide receivers and throwing passes to tight ends. The 49ers don’t defend well in these games.

The 49ers’ strength is their coverage. It’s hard to throw over the middle against them because Fred Warner is the greatest linebacker of all time, and it’s hard to throw downfield because the 49ers have very good corners.

So if the Buccaneers try to claw their way to a win, the 49ers will probably intercept Baker Mayfield once or twice and win.

But if the Bucs try to make a run for the win, they may well pull off the upset.

What an interesting test.

Download and follow TheBest 49ers Podcast.