For Taiwan, Trump’s ‘protection’ money could mean new and early major arms deals

TAIPEI – Taiwan can show it is taking Donald Trump’s demand for “defense” money seriously by striking large and early new arms deals, showing it is not looking for a free ride and is determined to demonstrate to Washington its determination to spend on its defense.

Trump, who this week won a second term as president, has unnerved democratically ruled Taiwan, which is claimed by China, by saying Taiwan should pay the United States for its defense and that he has taken America’s semiconductor business.

“Watch for Taiwan on the defense side to try to start getting them involved in a big arms package – to do something big, very big,” Mr Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, which helps broker defense exchanges between This was stated in Washington and Taipei, adding that this could happen in the first quarter of 2025.

“But think of it as a down payment, as an attraction,” he said. “They will assemble several large platforms and purchase large quantities of ammunition.”

The US is already Taiwan’s most important arms supplier, although Taiwan has complained of about US$20 billion (S$26 billion) of unfulfilled orders. A new order for missile systems worth nearly $2 billion was announced in October.

Taiwan, whose government rejects Beijing’s claims to sovereignty, has faced repeated military pressure from China, including a new round of war games in October.

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said in a written report to lawmakers on Nov. 7 that China could try to test the U.S. during the presidential transition through additional exercises, hacking attacks or other forms of psychological warfare.

One former U.S. official said he assessed it was “highly likely” that Taiwan would move quickly to secure a major arms deal with the U.S. to woo the Trump administration and counter any lingering inclinations that Taiwan has ripped off the U.S. semiconductors.

“They will want to quickly consolidate their allegiance to secure Trump’s interests,” he said of Taiwan, speaking on condition of anonymity so he could speak freely.

Taiwan’s defense pact with Washington ended in 1979, along with formal diplomatic relations, so it does not directly pay for the stationing of American troops on its territory, unlike Japan and South Korea.

On Nov. 7, Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung dodged reporters’ questions about what U.S. defense money might look like but told lawmakers that defense spending, now about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product, would increase.

“The trend is that it will continue to increase,” he said.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry referred to Reuters comments made on November 6 by Deputy Defense Minister Po Horn-hui in Parliament that Defense Minister Wellington Koo had made it very clear that Taiwan’s determination to defend itself would never change.

“It is our responsibility to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait,” Mr. Po said.

Friends of Taiwan

There are several names vying for top positions in the new US administration who are strong supporters of Taiwan, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who called for formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan after leaving office, and former national security adviser Robert O’Brien. , visiting Taiwan in 2023.

O’Brien tweeted on November 6 that he thanked Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te for congratulating Trump and supported officials in Taiwan, although Lai’s office said there were no plans for a phone call between him and Trump.

One Taiwanese security source, also speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter, said if people like Mr O’Brien or Mr Pompeo were given top jobs it would be “fantastic” for Taiwan , but that Taiwan also needs to show that it is serious about defense spending.

“Trump demanding defense money is probably the push Taiwan needs to really increase its defense spending,” the official said, adding that a new arms deal in the new year would be a great way to show Trump that he will do it.

Trump won fans in Taiwan during his first term, first by talking to then-President Tsai Ing-wen shortly after winning the election, and then by arms sales, cabinet visits to Taipei and a hard line on China.

Vincent Chao, who was a spokesman for Lai’s presidential campaign and regularly visits the United States, said all potential candidates publicly discussed for Trump’s secretary of state and defense positions are considered “Taiwan-friendly.”

“When it comes to Trump, people say it’s what he does, not what he says,” Mr. Chao said, referring to Mr. Trump’s comments about Taiwan during the campaign. “Taiwanese need not worry. We must have confidence.” REUTERS