Change of connections? Why Trump’s support among Latino and black voters could spell trouble for Democrats

Donald Trump may have won the latest round of political battles, but that’s the least of Democrats’ worries. As support for Trump grows among Latino and black voters, especially in key swing states, the Democratic Party faces a new and unexpected challenge.
Trump’s outreach efforts have reshaped the Republican base, with the former president increasing his share of the Latino vote this year to 46%, according to Edison Research exit polls. The shift marks a 14-point increase from his 2020 performance against then-Democratic nominee Joe Biden, making it the highest level of Latino support for a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004. His gains were especially noticeable among Latino men, where his support rose 19 points to 55%. Among Latina women, Trump’s support rose 8 points to 38%.
Appeal on economic and cultural issues
Trump’s focus on economic issues resonated with working-class, Latino and black voters, many of whom have been significantly impacted by high inflation and rising costs of living. Hispanic Americans, who tend to be younger and less likely to have college degrees than their white counterparts, are especially vulnerable to economic pressure. For many of these voters, Trump’s policies on taxes and immigration coincide with their concerns about job security and rising spending. About two-thirds of voters in recent polls said they think the U.S. economy is in bad shape, with 46% saying their own financial situation has worsened since four years ago.
“Republicans have consistently outperformed Democrats in communicating with voters on economic issues,” Clarissa Martinez De Castro of UnidosUS, an advocacy group focused on Latinos, told Reuters. “This year has been no exception, especially with economic struggles dominating the conversation.”
Changes among black voters in key areas
While Trump’s black support remains dwindling, his gains in traditionally Democratic strongholds reflect his ability to appeal to broader minority communities. In Georgia, small black-majority counties like Hancock and Jefferson supported Trump in this election, and his campaign celebrated victory in Baldwin County, a black-majority area where Republicans have historically had difficulty appealing to black and Latino voters. attention to cultural issues. Eschewing GOP community centers aimed at outreach to minorities, Trump has instead used social media influencers, podcasters and even hip-hop artists to reach a younger, more diverse audience. Campaign messaging often focused on cultural grievances, such as criticism of “elites” and claims that liberal policies on issues such as transgender rights were not in the best interests of ordinary Americans.
Trump against the establishment
A key part of Trump’s approach involves tapping into anti-establishment sentiment. By rallying against what he calls “out-of-touch liberals” and linking immigration to the economic problems of black communities, Trump has attracted a significant following. His campaign raises issues such as gender-affirming surgery and transgender athletes as part of a liberal ideology that is perceived as “out of control.” In a prominent television ad, the Trump campaign said: “Kamala is for them/them; President Trump is for you,” appealing directly to social conservative values ​​among minority voters.
Democrats face an uphill battle
For the Democratic Party, changes in the Latino and black voting base indicate an urgent need to rethink its strategies to retain these traditionally supportive groups. In areas critical to past Democratic victories, support for Trump is growing. In urban counties where Democrats often won by large margins, Harris’ lead shrank after Biden won in 2020, especially among Latinos and voters without a college degree.