How a Trump victory could affect the housing market

US housing market has been a major concern for voters in the 2024 presidential election as low inventory levels continue to push home prices to new highs. Eye-popping home prices coupled with higher mortgage rates in recent years have put the American Dream out of reach for more and more Americans amid a long-running affordability crisis.

Both Vice President Harris and President-elect Trump have promised to solve America’s housing problems if they win the White House. Trump emerges victorious this week the real estate industry will take a fresh look at how his policies could impact the market.

Pre-election Realtor.com analysis gave mixed reviews of both candidates’ plans, praising some of their proposals while warning of potential backlash from others.

The online retail company has welcomed Trump’s plans to increase housing supply by changing housing regulations, which he has described as “unnecessary” and “killer.” The report says cutting rules could make it easier for builders to add homes at lower prices, noting that the combined cost of regulations at the federal, state and local levels increases the cost of a new home by more than $90,000.

CHARLES PAYNE: TRUMP’S VICTORY COULD CHANGE AMERICA FOR YEARS TO COME

“Zoning regulations, building codes and labor standards are just some of the rules that guide builders during extensive development and home construction,” said Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. Fox Business.

“Builders and developers pay fees directly to the government, incur the costs of studying the impacts of construction and complying with various regulations, and face delays while waiting for approvals,” Hale explained. “While many of these rules are undoubtedly well-intentioned, they impose costs that are ultimately borne by the consumer.”

TRUMP’S POLICIES CAN PROVIDE THE ECONOMY WITH ‘REAGAN-STYLE ROCKET FUEL’: PETER STONGE

The analysis also talks about Trump’s promise to reduce inflation and reduce mortgage rates will benefit the housing market as it will revive a stagnant market, noting that lower rates will unblock homeowners who currently find moving untenable because their existing mortgage rate is well below the market, and will also improve prospects for buyers.

However, a Realtor.com analysis disagrees with Trump’s plans to raise tariffs and reduce immigration, arguing that the proposals could have unintended consequences for the housing market.

Republicans argue that a surge in illegal immigration into the U.S. has contributed to rising home values ​​by increasing demand, but Realtor.com argues that a reduction in immigration could backfire on the real estate market.

REAL ESTATE TITAN FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN RATES AFTER TRUMP VICTORY

In the short term, the report says, cuts in immigration could “seriously damage” the supply of labor needed to build new homes. The analysis points to data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicating that up to a third of home construction workers are foreign-born workers.

The report warns that reduced immigration could also harm housing market demand in the long term, as reduced immigration could lead to negative population growth in the US, as the US total fertility rate is 1.67, well below the population maintenance rate 2.1.

“In other words,” the report says, “without immigration to fill the population gap, the country will likely face a decline in aggregate housing demand.”

Bye some real estate experts dismissed concerns about Trump’s plan to raise tariffs, Realtor.com said increasing such taxes on imported goods could lead to higher home costs.

START A FOX BUSINESS ON THE MOVE BY CLICKING HERE

“A significant share of construction materials are imported, including cement, steel and lumber,” Hale said. “These products are already subject to tariffs, and it is unclear to what extent additional taxes will be imposed. What’s more certain is that additional tariffs will likely mean higher prices for U.S. consumers.”