Bengals vs. Ravens Predictions and Picks for TNF: Grudge Match

The AFC North is in the primetime spotlight for Week 10 as the Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football.

Baltimore is coming off a poor run in the blocks, winning six of its last seven games. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is trying to stay within striking distance of its division rival, having won three of four heading into Week 10.

Oddsmakers believe there is a big gap between these two teams, but that’s not how life is going in the AFC North.

I’m assessing the NFL’s odds for Thursday Night Football and giving it my best shot. NFL Pick November 6, kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET at M&T Bank Stadium.

To learn more, visit Sam Farley. Spotlight on Lamar Jackson’s chances.

TNF Bengals vs Ravens Prediction

My best choice
Bengals +6.5 (-120 on FanDuel)

My analysis

When all teams are healthy, the spread of most AFC North games is around a field goal. But bookmakers believe that Baltimore Ravens are superior to their division opponents in Week 10, making them the home favorites tonight.

If the standings say one thing, then the evaluation of these teams says something else. Crows and Cincinnati Bengals Both have excellent defenders, explosive attacks and excellent defense.

That’s exactly what we saw in Week 5 when Baltimore beat Cincinnati in a wild 41-38 overtime loss at Pacore Stadium. The Ravens won with a field goal in the extra frame that was enough to overcome a minus-2.5 deficit on the road.

This result was a rare cover for the favorite in these matches. Going back to 2015, the underdog percentage in AFC North divisional games was 56%. And if you take the bad news Cleveland Browns out of the equation, the three remaining members are a combined 68% against the childhood spread in the divisional dance.

Baltimore’s defense has weakened in recent games and is far from the all-time highs of Mike McDonald’s 2023 stop group. The Ravens rank 29th in EPA in tackles allowed and 23rd in opponent pass success rate, and in the face of the Cincy aerial attack, they rank in the top three. an insulting reversal of these advanced dimensions.

Moreover, the Ravens’ second-half woes burned the 2024 team. Baltimore eased off the gas in the fourth quarter, giving up 42% of its total points scored in the final 15 minutes. This is an unfortunate trend when setting a spread as large as Thursday’s.

While the Ravens scored 9 points against Denver last Sunday, John Harbaugh’s team is just 5-14-1 (27%) when scoring six or more points since 2021. Joe Burrow As a huge step up in QB competition (he threw for nearly 400 yards and five touchdowns in Week 5), he’s 11-7 as a Dog over the same period, including 4-1 when scoring six or more scores.

Bengals vs Ravens TNF, one game parlay

Bengals +6.5

More than 52.5

Ja’Marr Chase lands anytime

This line is too big for this divisional rivalry, especially considering the Ravens’ weakness against the pass.

These teams scored nearly 80 points in Week 5 and I don’t see why they can’t top that given the firepower on the field.

Chase will be facing a Ravens secondary that ranks in the bottom 10 in advanced defensive metrics. He scored twice in the week five shootout.

Learn how to bet within the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bengals vs. Ravens Odds

Bengals vs Ravens live betting

Bengals’ opening odds against Ravens

• Spreading: Cincinnati +6 | Baltimore -6
• Money line: Cincinnati +225 | Baltimore -275
• More/less: Over 51.5 (-110) | Less than 51.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Bengals vs Ravens Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• After Week 9, oddsmakers have Baltimore as the home favorite in the Fair Night Football Tournament by 6.5 points. We’ve seen this spread drop to -5.5 on some sharper books, and on Wednesday we’re seeing books between -6 and -6.5.

• The over/under opened at just 51.5 points and instantly made money for the over, bringing that number to 53 points. These opponents combined for nearly 1,000 yards and 79 points in Week 5, eclipsing the final total of 48.5 O/E.

• Among Cincinnati’s injured players, WR Tee Higgins and OL Orlando Brown are worth keeping an eye on. Baltimore added WR Diontae Johnson and CB Tre’Davious White at the trade deadline. Their participation in this short week is unknown.

Bengals vs. Ravens Betting Trends Worth Knowing

Excluding the terrible Browns, the underdog is 47-22-2 (68%) in AFC North divisional games since 2015. Find out more NFL Betting Trends for the Bengals vs. Ravens.

Bengals vs. Ravens Game Information

Recent Bengals vs. Ravens Injuries

Bengals vs. Ravens Weather

Keep track of game conditions using our Live NFL Weather Information and study How weather affects NFL betting.

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