NHC monitors Hurricane Rafael, unrest. See Florida’s influence

Two systems in the Atlantic basin – Hurricane Rafael The disturbance northeast of the Leeward Islands is a flooded portion of the Caribbean Sea, according to the National Hurricane Center. Raphael’s intended path took a sharp turn to the west, and his final destination is still in flux.

After the flooding of western Cuba and disable the entire island’s electrical gridRafael entered the Gulf of Mexico still a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. The storm is expected to weaken over the next few days, and a mid-level ridge is forecast to push Raphael west and further away from the Sunshine State.

While landfall is not expected in Florida, the lower Florida Keys may experience storm surge and coastal flooding. Areas along Florida’s west coast are under a small craft and high surf warning, and there is a high risk of dangerous rip currents.

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

➤ Weather alerts via text messages: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events based on location.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, meteorologists are observing a trough of low pressure northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center said gradual developments were possible through the end of the week and into the weekend.

AccuWeather meteorologists said the system could turn into tropical depression or storm this week it is moving along the northern islands of the Caribbean.

The next named storm of the season will be Sarah.

Here’s the latest news from the NHC as of 7 a.m. Thursday, November 7:

Hurricane Raphael: What you need to know

Special Note for NHC Cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impact, and the center of the storm is likely to extend beyond the cone 33% of the time.

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

Special note about spaghetti models: The illustrations include a variety of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models to make its forecasts.

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

Florida hit by Hurricane Rafael

Potential impacts for Florida from the National Hurricane Center:

Coastal flooding, including the possibility of saltwater inundation of coastal portions of the Lower Keys early this morning, especially during the morning high tide. Water levels could reach 2 feet above average high flood water or about a foot higher than recent high tides. Conditions are expected to improve this morning. The lower Florida Keys could see storm surges of 1 to 2 feet.
Waves generated by Rafael are expected to spread across much of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week and early into the weekend. These waves can cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

National Hurricane Center Map: What else is there and how likely is it to intensify?

Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Near Leeward Island: A trough of low pressure northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the course of a couple of days as it moves west into the Greater Antilles area.

Regardless of developments, localized heavy rainfall is possible over the next few days in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.

Chance of formation after 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
Chance of formation in seven days: low, 30 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on the tropical map represent “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

The colors make it clear how likely it is that a system will develop where yellow is low, orange is medium, and red is high.

The National Hurricane Center typically does not issue tropical advisories until after a named storm has occurred, but there is an exception.

“If a system is close to land and has the potential to develop, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not developed into a full storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rome said.

Who is most likely to get hurt?

Some areas Florida may feel some effects including tropical storm-force winds and 1-3 inches of rain from Hurricane Rafael.

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

➤ Florida Hurricane Forecast: Given Raphael’s rumble, storm-hit state should see only rain

AccuWeather meteorologists talk about a system in the southwest Atlantic may become a tropical depression or storm this week it is moving along the northern islands of the Caribbean. It’s too early to tell whether Florida will see any impact.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and always be prepared.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms near your city

Excessive rainfall forecast

Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via text messages

What’s next?

We will continue to update our tropical weather information daily. Download your local site’s app to stay connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.

Contributing: Christopher Kann and Jorge L. Ortiz, USA TODAY