India’s climate policy expected to reduce CO2 emissions by around 4 billion tonnes by 2030: report

India’s current climate policies are projected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately four billion tonnes between 2020 and 2030 and lead to a 24% reduction in coal-based electricity generation. File | Photo credit: AP

India’s current climate policies are projected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about four billion tonnes between 2020 and 2030 and lead to a 24% reduction in coal-based electricity generation, according to a new report.

This is significant given that the fast-growing South Asian country, now the world’s fifth-largest economy, committed to cutting emissions by one billion tonnes by 2030 at COP26 in Glasgow.

A study by Delhi-based independent think tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) says policies across India’s power, housing and transport sectors have already saved 440 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) during the period. from 2015 to 2020.

According to the report, in the power sector alone, policies promoting renewable energy are expected to reduce coal-fired electricity generation by 24% by 2030 compared to a scenario without the policy.

“This is equivalent to eliminating the construction of 80 GW of coal-fired power plants that would otherwise be installed to meet India’s growing electricity demand,” CEEW said.

India currently produces about 71% of its electricity using coal.

Additionally, with strategic support and competitive tendering, the share of combined solar and wind power in India’s energy mix is ​​projected to rise to 26% by 2030 and 43% by 2050, up from about 3% in 2015.

This shift will dramatically reduce dependence on coal, which currently accounts for nearly half of the country’s total carbon dioxide emissions. This transition is critical to lowering India’s emissions curve, but achieving net zero by 2070 will require even more ambitious action.

India is pushing to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix, increase adoption of electric vehicles and improve energy efficiency in home air conditioning and lighting. It also launched programs such as the National Solar Mission, FAME I and II Schemes, Standards and Labeling Scheme and UJALA Scheme, which will continue to influence future energy supply and demand.

Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of CEEW, said: “Over the last decade, India has shown tremendous leadership on climate, from scaling up renewable energy to improving energy efficiency and electric mobility through policy. This has not only diversified our energy mix and doubled our energy security, but also created new markets and significantly reduced carbon emissions.”

“The path to net zero requires bolder action and we cannot take our foot off the pedal now. To ensure the efforts of the Global South, COP29 must ensure climate finance flows to developing countries like India without participants. This will deepen renewable energy markets and sustainable development.” a future for everyone.”

In the transport sector, CEEW research has found that policies such as the FAME schemes (2015–2022) have paved the way for significant growth in the electric vehicle market.

Projections show that by 2030, electric two-wheelers and four-wheelers could account for 19% and 11% of their respective segments. This could lead to a 13% reduction in oil and gas demand this decade.

By 2050, these numbers are expected to rise sharply to over 65% for both EV categories, resulting in a 55% reduction in oil and gas demand in the sector compared to a no-policy scenario.

In the residential sector, the 2006 Standards and Labels program resulted in significant improvements in the energy efficiency of air conditioning and refrigeration systems.

Air conditioning-related electricity consumption in Indian households is projected to double between 2020 and 2030, before rising nearly 10-fold by 2050, the study found. This growth will not only be driven by hotter summers and higher incomes, but also by lower electricity prices supported by higher penetration of renewable energy.

The UJALA program – through the promotion and distribution of over 36.7 crore energy-efficient LED bulbs since 2015 – aims to reduce residential lighting electricity consumption by 48% by 2030 and 59% by 2050 compared to a no-policy scenario.

Vaibhav Chaturvedi, senior fellow at CEEW and lead author of the study, said: “Our findings show that current policies have put India on the right track. the goal of achieving net zero by 2070.”

“Immediate steps should include increasing investment in renewable energy, improving the domestic carbon credit trading scheme and focusing on energy efficiency in key sectors such as industry, transport and construction,” he added.