close
close

Did Donald Trump really run a good campaign?

Posted on by Bobb
Did Donald Trump really run a good campaign?

Let’s consider the possibility (though Democratic strategists may not) that Donald Trump actually ran a pretty good campaign and Kamala Harris ran a pretty bad campaign.

Not for libertarian reasons, in terms of what policies each candidate stands for, but in terms of what will be important to the people whose votes they want. Trump has focused quite aggressively on borders and cost of living. He developed a plan to deport those in the country illegally and sent his vice president-elect, J.D. Vance, with talking points on how it would happen. He recruited literal rocket scientist/Tesla creator/meme lord Elon Musk to his cause, who began giving away his megabucks to voters promising to vote and respect the Constitution. Trump has had some weird but understandable things he’s become obsessed with—like no tip taxes—that are kind of par for the course for him. (Remember how many years ago he was obsessed with how efficiency standards and how many washes away do they require modern toilets?)

Harris, who has never had to defeat her party or prove her ability to meet the moment through a primary, has taken quite a while to start filling her website with policy proposals. When she did, the policies weren’t suited to the moment: tax breaks that would help developers build more starter homes, down payment assistance for buyers that would simply subsidize demand, lip service to YIMBY Policy– decided at a more local level – but nothing more. She talked about taming food prices not by fighting inflation (and eliminating policies that would make it worse again), but by cracking down on…those greedy grocers and their price gouging. (The government could simply establish price controlshe suggested.) She spent much of her campaign on “joy” and vibes, choosing a less-than-strategic running mate in Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and she managed to move away from some of the more progressive positions she touted in She ran for president for the first time in 2019, portraying herself as a tough prosecutor on the side of the law, in contrast to Trump, a convicted criminal.

On one of the most important issues – abortion – Harris simply did not have same advantage. While her team continued to strike fear into the hearts of moderate pro-choice voters by arguing that Trump would impose a nationwide ban on abortion if he had the chance, Trump supported abortion moderation (and the GOP platform followed this to some extent, angering pro-abortionists). – lifelong).

But the Democratic Party, riven by Israel/Palestine and progressive criminal justice and identity politics, doesn’t look very united right now, and there’s no clear sense of what message is needed to persuade voters. Trump vote totals in traditionally blue areas, including cities like New York, were shockingly high this time around; it appears that the high cost of living and the perception of high levels of crime and disorder lead voters to have negative views of Democratic Party policies.

Don’t try to buy people’s votes! It certainly looked like an inflationary election in which people perceived a vote for Donald Trump as a rejection not only of Kamala Harris, but also of the policies pursued by the Biden administration that she represents. And part of what the Biden administration did was pass the American Rescue Plan in 2021, which cost $1.9 trillion and was distributed around the world. several rounds stimulus packages for middle- and low-income Americans (defined very generously), ostensibly to help them cope with the economic shocks (job losses, business closures) caused by the pandemic.

It was very popular at that time. But then the bill the time has comeas always, in the form of inflation. In June 2022, inflation peaked at 9.1 percent; since many of the world’s developed countries were also facing high inflation, it had to do with something other than “my government was trying to curry favor with me by handing me cash.” In fact, the Biden administration seems to stored to do so is in the form of student loan forgiveness, much of which has been struck down by the courts.

Perhaps one takeaway for Democrats is that simply giving people money doesn’t work because there are always consequences to that decision, and sometimes the consequences outweigh the benefits. In fact, the economic hardships caused by years of higher-than-normal inflation have likely outpaced any personal budget additions (and, in many cases, increased economic activity in the form of spending) brought about by the stimulus measures.

Scenes from New York: Okay, technically I’m talking about New Jersey today, our much maligned neighbor. Yesterday I mentioned in Round that while Kamala Harris won, Trump trailed her by five points, making it “the closest presidential result for a Republican since George H. W. Bush.” lost by 2.4 points in 1992“,” reports Politician. “Tuesday night’s lead is even more astonishing given that the number of registered Democratic voters in New Jersey has since tripled that of Republicans and now has an advantage of 900,000 voters.”

Is New Jersey now a swing state, or at least trending toward it?

It has some of the highest taxes and costs of living in a country hit hard by inflation. Ethnically, it is quite diverse, with a large Hispanic and Arab-American population. “I think you saw the beginning of this in ’21. Voters in New Jersey are frustrated on economic issues, on crime issues, and I also think there’s a downside to what Trump has affected culturally,” Republican strategist Chris Russell. said Politician.

QUICK HITS

  • This Politician a piece full of democratic strategists speaking the fact that the country is “not ready for a woman president” is quite funny; I’m not sure “no more identity politics!” That’s the conclusion, given that Harris ran a weak and short campaign, rising to the seat through unconventional means and never getting a chance to make her party’s case in the primaries (which should ideally be a testing ground for candidates).
  • Related: “If Trump Just Relyed on White Resentment, He Would See Profits Decline.” writes Ethan Strauss. “Instead, in our increasingly multi-ethnic country, his party is seeing gains everywhere. The lens of the oppressed against the oppressors does not explain why Trump has made major incursions into this bastion of white supremacy, otherwise known as Bronx. Or is it MAGA Country we’re calling Chicago. Across America, our major cities, while blue, have become redder.”
  • Honestly, yes.
  • “In a healthier republic, we would all be sitting on pins and needles, waiting for the results in Iowa 1st, Pennsylvania 8th, Virginia 7th, and so on,” writes CauseThis is Eric Boehm. “Control of the House of Representatives must be That The biggest prize in any election cycle, because Congress is constitutionally the most powerful branch of the federal government, and the House of Representatives is the part of Congress most directly responsive to the interests of the people.”
  • I can’t laugh:
  • Fair on all counts, but forgive me for not thinking (presumably) that Trump’s pick, RFK Jr., would do a great job: