Michigan vs. Indiana Score Prediction Using Expert Football Model

A surprise opponent this season, No. 8 Indiana returns home against defending national champion Michigan on Saturday. Let’s check out the latest game predictions from an expert football model that predicts the score and picks the winners.

Indiana debuted at No. 8 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. is behind an offense that ranks second in the country with nearly 47 points per game and is tied for first in the Big Ten standings heading into November football.

Michigan fell to 3-3 in Big Ten play and 5-4 overall, losing three of its last four games, including a 21-point loss at home to Oregon last week, ranking 116th in scoring and 128th in passing.

What do analytical models suggest when the Hoosiers and Wolverines meet in Big Ten play?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ forecasting model to get an idea of ​​how Michigan and Indiana compare in this Week 11 college football matchup.

So far, the models are on the Hoosiers’ side with a double-digit lead over the Wolverines.

SP+ predicts that Indiana will defeat Michigan 30-18. and win the game with an advantage expected difference 12.5 points.

The model gives Hoosiers a strong 78 percent probability complete victory over the Wolverines.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted college football performance metric” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most consistent and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is currently 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 winning percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Indiana is Favorite with a rating of 13.5 points against Michigan, according to updated numbers posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total on 49.5 points per game (Over -110, Under -110).

And that set Indiana’s moneyline odds at -630 and for Michigan in +450 win outright.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, most of whom think the Hoosiers will dominate the Wolverines, according to the latest consensus projections for the game.

Indiana is becoming 65 percent bets on winning the game by at least 2 touchdowns and covering the spread.

Another 35 percent betting draft Michigan will keep the game within two touchdowns if it loses or win the game outright if it loses.

Indiana ranks first nationally with difference plus-27.8 points this season, while Michigan averages 2.3 points worse than opponents, ranking 81st in the FBS in that category.

Over the last three games, this difference has increased for both teams.

Michigan has deteriorated to 9.3 points worse than opponents during that time, while Indiana improved to average 33.3 points better than the competition during this period.

Playing at home this season, the Hoosiers have scored nearly four more touchdowns than their opponents on average. 27.8 points better than the opposition.

Michigan was 12 points worse than their opponents when playing away in 2024.

Indiana ranks first in college football in scoring average. 0.633 points per game on average, while Michigan allows 0.341 points per gameranking 42nd in the FBS.

Michigan ranks 86th in the country with 0.346 points per game on offense, compared to Indiana’s defense, which allows 0.232 points per gameranking 7th nationally.

Most analytics models favor the Hoosiers over the Wolverines in this matchup.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Indiana is a big favorite at home and takes the lead on the power play. 86.8 percent from the latest computer simulations of the match.

That leaves Michigan as the projected winner in the remaining 13.2 percent Sims.

How does this affect the expected margin of victory in the game?

Indiana is projected to be 16.8 points better than Michigan on the same field with both teams’ current lineups, according to the model’s latest projection.

Indiana ranks third among Big Ten teams with Probability 82.9 percent to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Hoosiers an overall win projection of 11.3 games this season.

Michigan is not in the College Football Playoff this year but is projected to be in the running for a spot in some bowl game.

Index gives Wolverine Probability 82.3 percent play in the postseason.

And it projects Michigan to win. 6 games in ’24.

When: Saturday, November 9.
Time: 3:30 pm Eastern Time.
TV: CBS network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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