The UN is wary of Donald Trump’s return to power

UNITED NATIONS – The United Nations has been planning for the eventual return of Donald Trump and cuts in US funding and engagement with world organizations likely to begin with his second term as president.

There was a sense of “déjà vu and some trepidation” at the 193-member world body as Republican Trump won Tuesday’s US election over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, a senior Asian diplomat said.

“There is also some hope that the transactional administration will engage with the UN in some areas, even if it has to protect some files. After all, what global arena is bigger and better than the United Nations?” – said the diplomat on condition of anonymity.

The US retreat at the UN could open the door for China to increase its influence in global diplomacy.

Trump has said little about foreign policy during his second term, but his supporters say his force of personality and his “peace through strength” approach will help bend foreign leaders to his will. He has promised to resolve the war in Ukraine and is expected to give strong support to Israel in its conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon.

One of the main questions at the UN is whether the United States will decide to give less money to the world body and withdraw from key multinational institutions and agreements, including the World Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement.

US funding is an immediate concern. Washington is the largest donor to the UN (China is second), accounting for 22% of the UN core budget and 27% of the budget for peacekeeping operations.

The country could be in debt for up to two years before facing the possible consequences of losing the General Assembly vote.

“VERY HEAVY”

Trump came to power last time proposing cuts of about a third to American diplomacy and aid budgets, which included sharp cuts in funding for U.N. peacekeeping operations and international organizations. But Congress, which sets the budget for the US federal government, rejected Trump’s proposal.

A UN spokesman said at the time that the proposed cuts would make it impossible to continue all the important work.

“The UN Secretariat knew they could face a Trump return within a year. There has been smart planning behind the scenes on how to deal with potential U.S. budget cuts,” said Richard Gowen, director of the U.N. International Crisis Group.

“So (UN Secretary-General Antonio) Guterres and his team are not completely unprepared, but they know that next year will be extremely difficult,” he said.

Trump’s team did not immediately respond to questions about his U.N. policy since he took office in January.

During his first term, Trump complained that the United States was shouldering an unfair burden of U.N. costs and pushed for reforms. Washington has traditionally been slow to pay, and when Trump left office in 2021, the US owed about $600 million on its core budget and $2 billion on peacekeeping.

President Joe Biden’s administration currently owes $995 million on the UN core budget and $862 million on peacekeeping operations, according to the UN.

“I don’t want to preempt or talk about policies that may or may not happen, but we are working with member states as we have always worked with member states,” Guterres spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters on Wednesday.

The UN Security Council will choose Guterres’ successor in 2026, a decision the Trump administration will have a veto over.

“GREAT NEWS FOR CHINA”

During Trump’s first term, he criticized the United Nations and was wary of multilateralism. He announced plans to withdraw from the World Health Organization and withdraw from the UN Human Rights Council, the UN cultural agency UNESCO, the global climate change agreement and the Iran nuclear deal.

When Biden succeeded him in 2021, he reversed the US decision to withdraw from the WHO and returned the US to UNESCO and the climate agreement. Trump’s campaign has said he would withdraw from the climate deal again if he becomes president.

“She will survive. But, of course, it will probably be seriously undermined,” Guterres told Reuters in September about Trump’s second withdrawal from the climate pact.

Ahead of the US election, a senior European diplomat said a Trump victory would be “great news for China”, recalling that during Trump’s first term, “China’s influence in the UN increased significantly because it was an open door for the Chinese.”

The diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that if Trump again cuts funding to the UN and withdraws from international pacts, “it will simply give China the opportunity to present itself as the number one supporter of multilateralism.”

US funding for some other UN agencies is also in question. One of the Trump administration’s first moves in 2017 was to cut funding for the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), an international agency that works on family planning and maternal and child health in more than 150 countries.

The Trump administration said UNFPA “supports… a program of forced abortions or forced sterilizations.” The UN said this was a mistaken belief. Biden restored US funding to UNFPA.

If Trump cuts funding again, UNFPA warned that “women will lose life-saving services in some of the world’s most devastating crises” in places such as Afghanistan, Sudan and Ukraine.

During Trump’s first presidency, the US also opposed long-agreed international language on women’s sexual and reproductive rights and health in UN resolutions over concerns that it would promote abortion rights.

A senior African diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, summed up Trump’s impending return to multilateralism and the United Nations: “Heaven help us.” REUTERS