Why Republicans are gaining momentum among black voters

November 8, 2024

If you exclude Trump’s support where it mattered, such as in battleground states, exit polls show him winning between 2% and 10% of the black vote.

Now that the 2024 general election is (almost) behind us, exit polls show the President-elect Donald Trump nearly doubled his support among black voters.

While Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign in her race for the White House targeted black voters in battleground states, Harris did not do as well as expected, although if elected she would be the first Indian-American woman and the second black president.

Most black voters voted for Harris, which is not surprising. Over the past several decades, black voters have overwhelmingly voted for the Democratic Party. According to a CNN exit poll, Harris won 85% of the Black vote, down 2% from 2020. President Joe Biden received 87% of the black vote.

The decline benefited Trump, who doubled his support from black voters, according to an Associated Press poll. Trump received 13% of the black community vote in 2020 and 8% in 2016, the highest support for Republicans among black voters since George W. Bush in 2000, Al Jazeera. reported.

If you exclude Trump’s support where it mattered, such as in battleground states, exit polls show he received between 2% and 10% of the black vote.

The biggest shift came in the critical state of Wisconsin, where black voters shifted 13 percentage points toward Trump. North Carolina reportedly saw one of the biggest shifts, with a 5 percentage point increase in Black voters from 2020 to 2024. In Georgia, Michigan (2), Pennsylvania and Nevada, the shift ranged from 1 to 3 percentage points.

What caused the shift?

The growing shift from Democratic to Republican support was not a surprise. As NPR notes, Black voters, especially younger generations of Black voters, are feeling disconnected from the political party as rising costs of everyday needs leave many feeling hopeless.

“(Black voters) know the importance of elections,” Christopher Towler, assistant professor at California State University, Sacramento, said publication. “They understand what it means to have representation. But at the same time, they don’t necessarily feel like they’re being represented by both sides right now.”

Other factors are likely rooted in changing ideologies. The legacy of the Democratic Party and the civil rights movement has kept her popular among black voters, but younger voters reportedly don’t feel the same connection.