Israel and Iran may not want a full-scale war now, but it may be difficult to avoid.

Israel may have more to deal with in Lebanon and Gaza, but a guarantee of full U.S. support could change the parameters elsewhere.

October 26, 2024, 1:19 pm(Updated 13:35)

A year ago, an attack by 100 Israeli warplanes and drones on 20 targets in Iran, as well as Syria and Iraq, would have caused great alarm among governments around the world.

Still, when Israel finally launched long-awaited air strikes on Iran and its allies early Saturday morning, the international community was relieved that it did not target Iran’s nuclear facilities or its oil industry. Instead, he focused his efforts on military headquarters, air defense systems, and a missile factory. Iran said two of its soldiers were killed in attacks on three Iranian provinces – Tehran, Ilam and Khuzestan – but otherwise there was little damage.

The Israeli strikes appear to be the end of the current phase of escalating confrontation between Israel and Iran, which has every chance of escalating into a full-scale regional war. Israel said its air attack was over, and a senior U.S. official said “this should be the end of direct fire between Israel and Iran.” Notably, Israel has not warned the Israeli public about the need to take security measures against Iranian missile counterattacks, suggesting that Tel Aviv does not expect this to happen.

Iran, which is desperate to avoid a full-scale military conflict with militarily superior US-backed Israel, has downplayed the Israeli attack. Tehran International Airport reopened to flights at 9 a.m., with schools reopening and sporting events continuing.

The Israeli strike was smaller than some Israeli political leaders demanded three weeks ago after 180 Iranian ballistic missiles were fired at Israel on October 1 in retaliation for the killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallahalong with senior Iranian military commanders in Beirut.

Possible targets included Iran’s nuclear facilities as well as its oil industry, the threat of which briefly sent crude oil prices soaring. President Joe Biden and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken have strongly opposed it, seeking to avoid the outbreak of a regional war in the Middle East coinciding with the US presidential election on November 5. Biden’s claim to have brought order to the world after the chaos of Donald Trump’s last presidency was already looking rather dubious.

It is unclear whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ever intended to attack Iranian nuclear and oil facilities at this point, but the fear that he might do so has proven a useful way to deflect international criticism of Israel’s escalating attacks on Gaza and Lebanon.

UN human rights chief Volker Türk says the “darkest moment” of the year-long Gaza conflict is unfolding in the northern Gaza Strip, where Israel is carrying out what he says is a ground offensive against Hamas to prevent its militants from regrouping. But critics say the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population continues. “As we speak, the Israeli military is exposing the entire population to bombing, siege and the risk of starvation,” Turk said. He called on world leaders to act, saying states have an obligation under the Geneva Conventions to ensure respect for international humanitarian law.

Meanwhile, World Health Organization chief Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that during the Israeli offensive, the WHO lost contact with the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia, which was overwhelmed with nearly 200 patients amid the offensive in neighboring Jabaliya.

Israel is currently involved in three wars in the region, both on the ground and in the air in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, and periodically with Iran. But neither of these conflicts shows any signs of coming to an end as they cross-infect each other, increasing levels of hatred and violence. Israel inflicted heavy losses Hamas And Hezbollahkilling their leaders, but this is unlikely to bankrupt any of them, while the brutality of the Israeli attack and heavy civilian casualties allow the organizations to recruit more fighters.

The Israeli government can count on the fact that the US elections could be Donald Trump become the elected president. He has already criticized Biden for not encouraging Israel to attack Iranian nuclear facilities as a priority target. At the same time, Trump’s spontaneous remarks do not constitute a solemn promise to Israel, and during his presidency Trump was careful not to provoke Iran to the brink of all-out war.

Iran seeks, and generally fails to find, a course of military action that will deter Israel and the United States without giving Israel the opportunity to further escalate the conflict. The October 1 ballistic missile strike on Israel revealed that Israel’s Iron Dome defense system is not impenetrable and led to the US sending an advanced missile defense system to Israel manned by 100 US soldiers, potentially leading to direct US military intervention in conflict with Iran.

At the same time, Iran hopes not to show weakness by failing to effectively respond to successive Israeli strikes, exposing the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance as a paper tiger.

It is an indication of how much war has become the norm in much of the Middle East that foreign governments and the media have paid little attention to Israeli airstrikes overnight in Syria and Iraq, as well as Iran. All of these conflicts create points of friction that can expand the conflict at any time.

“We are focused on our military objectives in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon,” the IDF said in a statement. “It is Iran that continues to push for broader regional escalation.” In fact, it was Israel that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, and earlier killed two senior Iranian generals in an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. But perhaps Israel feels for now that it has enough on its plate in Gaza and Lebanon that, if it were to engage Iran at the same time, it would need assurances of full US military involvement in its region. side.