Is this breathtaking FTSE 250 share still a compelling buy for me after soaring almost 200%?

Last month wasn’t particularly good for FCS index 250but it was great for a construction company Morgan Sindall Group (LFB: MGNS).

It is the best-performing stock in the index over the period, with shares up 29.54%. This is also not an isolated case. Morgan Sindall’s share price has more than doubled over the past year, rising 105.11%.

Stocks are crashing today

It became a blockbuster by 197.12% in five years. By comparison, the FTSE 250 rose just 3.56% over the period unstable period for stock marketsthanks to Covid and the cost of living crisis.

This is just one reason why I prefer to buy individual stocks rather than index trackers. When they fly, they can really fly. Of course, the opposite can also happen.

The latest explosion in Morgan Sindall share prices follows a report on October 22 that said full-year profits would be “much ahead” expectations. This stuck on “exceptional volumes” at Overbury Decorating, which provides office renovations as well as interior design and construction services. The company’s order book jumped 15% to £1.3 billion.

The group’s construction and infrastructure divisions were on track to achieve full-year 2024 revenue and profitability targets, and its residential partnerships division also exceeded expectations.

Its cross-functional partnerships division remains “conquered” but with total secured orders worth £8.9bn at 30 September, markets were unconcerned. This comes on the heels of record first-half results published on 8 August, with revenue up 14% to £2.2bn and adjusted pre-tax profit up 17% to £70.1m.

Net cash jumped from £263m to £351m year-on-year and the board capped it all with a 15% dividend rise to 41.5p per share.

This is a stunning rise in stocks.

Morgan Sindall isn’t just offering sharp growth, it’s also consistently increasing its dividend (except for the pandemic year). Its 2.99% yield is impressive considering how quickly the share price has risen. Let’s see what the charts say.

TradingView Chart

I have a confession to make. Until this morning I had never heard of Morgan Sindall. It only caught my attention because of its stellar performance. If I had been a better and wiser investor, I would have noticed its potential years ago and would be feeling smug and rich today. Alas…

As always with momentum stocks, I worry that I’ll arrive too late to the party. So can Morgan Sindall continue to fly?

It still looks good with a modest price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5%. The five analysts offering one-year share price forecasts have a median target of 3,540 pence per share. In fact, this is 7.18% less than today. However, I believe they were produced before the recent record results, when the share price was lower. So I suspect they are falling behind.

Buying a stock after it’s jumped 30% in a month comes with challenges. I will most likely be hit by a profit taking attack.

Investors are also looking forward to falling interest rates and Labour’s plans to revive housing construction. But if rates remain high or Labor fails to meet its construction targets, the sector could fall. Investor expectations for this stock are sky-high and any underperformance will be punished.

I continue to believe that the future looks bright for Morgan Sindall. If the economy is recoveringit could look even brighter. I will buy when those profiting sell.