Japanese politics receives rare dose of shock after early elections

Elections in Japan are usually calm and boring, but this snap election is neither of those things.

Dramatic voting follows political finance corruption scandal The case came to light last year and implicated senior lawmakers and cabinet ministers from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), tarnishing its image and angering the public.

It was a perfect storm – a scandal in which dozens of LDP lawmakers were investigating the misappropriation of millions of dollars in political fundraising proceeds while households struggled with inflation, high prices, stagnant wages and a sluggish economy.

In the end, an angry and weary electorate sent a strong signal during Sunday’s vote, punishing the LDP at the ballot box. And in a stunning blow, the party that had ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955 lost its single-party majority in the powerful lower house.

But there was no clear winner either. The divided opposition failed to provide a viable alternative when the public sought one.

Despite the heavy losses, the LDP still won more seats – 191 – than the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), whose final tally was 148 seats.

“This election appears to be about voters who are fed up with parties and politicians they see as corrupt and dirty. But this is not the case when they want to bring in a new leader,” said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies.

Still, the fate of the old leadership is unclear. The ruling LDP coalition fell short of the halfway point – 233 seats in the 465-member parliament – after its ally Komeito lost several seats, including that of its leader.

Even with 24 seats, Komeito LDP will not be able to win a majority.

It is a “stern sentence,” said Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was sworn in as prime minister only earlier this month after victory in a tight race for party leadership.

Voters “expressed their strong desire for the LDP to reflect and become a party that will act in accordance with the will of the people,” he said on Sunday as the results came in.

There was hope that Ishiba, as a leader, would be able to save the LDP in the elections – growing discontent and a sharp drop in ratings. ousted last prime minister Fumio Kishida.

Still, Ishiba took the risk. when he announced early elections less than a month ago – and it backfired.

Both he and his party underestimated the extent of public anger and, crucially, their willingness to act on it.

To stay in power, the LDP will now have to form a coalition with the other parties it fought against in the elections. And he will do this from a position of significant weakness, as he must negotiate and make concessions in order to survive.

It is difficult to overstate how rare this is: the LDP has always occupied a safe and stable place in Japanese politics.

And she has a good track record of governing: when the opposition did come to power in 1993 and 2009, things ended badly.

Since the LDP returned to power in 2012, it has managed to win every election with little competition. There has long been resignation to the status quo, and the opposition remains unconvincing to the Japanese people.

“I think we (Japanese) are very conservative,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a 66-year-old voter, told the BBC days before the election.

“We find it very difficult to challenge and make changes. And when one day the ruling party changed (and the opposition came to power), ultimately nothing changed, so we tend to remain conservative.”

Ms. Fujisaki said she initially did not know who to vote for, especially in light of the fundraising scandal looming over the LDP. But given that she’s always voted for them, she said she’s probably going to do the same this time.

Although the main opposition party, the Christian Democratic Party, has made significant gains, observers say these results have less to do with voters’ support for the opposition and more to do with their dissatisfaction with the LDP.

Even though voters want to hold their politicians accountable, “in (their) minds… there’s really no one” they trust to lead the country, Mr. Hall said.

This will leave Japan with a weakened LDP and a divided opposition.

The country has long been seen as a beacon of political stability, a haven for investors and a reliable U.S. ally in an increasingly tense Asia-Pacific region. Thus, uncertainty worries not only its own people, but also its neighbors and allies.

At home, a shaky coalition will not help turn around the economy, raise wages or improve the well-being of a rapidly aging population.

And the task of regaining the trust and respect of a society tired of politics will be even more difficult.