Question H: Inside the Campaign to Save City Council Districts

If history is any indicator, the fate of Baltimore’s six city council members may well be written in stone.

Voters filling out ballots this year are being asked whether the number of City Council districts should be cut from 14 to eight, a move that would eliminate nearly half the jobs in the Legislature. Baltimore voters tend to approve ballot questions almost automatically—only one has failed in the last 25 years.

But in the final weeks before Election Day, City Council members, progressive groups and labor organizations are stepping up a campaign to persuade people to vote against Question H. Posters are popping up in courtyards across the city. Opponents knocking on doors and attending public meetings dutifully tell residents that the measure is being funded by David Smith. Baltimore County media mogul who heads Sinclair, Inc. and earlier this year bought The Baltimore Sun. In recent weeks, a well-funded counteroffensive backed by Mayor Brandon Scott, pointedly titled “Stop Sinclair,” has hit tens of thousands of residents with text messages and radio ads.

But could this late-stage push be too little, too late?

The effort to block Question H is the most vigorous campaign against a ballot measure ever, according to Andy Ellis, a member of the city’s Charter Review Commission who is leading one of the many coalitions seeking to stop the proposal. Smith similarly funded two years ago, a referendum on establishing term limits in the mayor’s office. The measure was approved but won the least support for an issue on the ballot.

Ellis predicts that if Question H passes, it will be by a small margin. Such a result could mean some pangs of regret for the opposition. About 60,000 city ​​residents received mail-in ballots late last month, and if there is any missed opportunity, Ellis said the opposition did not step up its outreach campaign in time to reach all of those voters.

“I feel comfortable. I don’t feel confident,” he said. “I think November 6th is a good chance for us to look back and say, ‘Eh, we could have beaten that thing.’

Whether Question H is approved or rejected will have major implications for the future of politics in Baltimore.

Success could usher in a new era of power in the city, in which wealthy donors like Smith and grassroots coalitions bypass City Hall and enact sweeping reforms through the ballot box. If the question fails, it could demonstrate the power of public messaging to turn the tide of referendums.

Opponents insist that nearly everyone in Baltimore who has heard of Question H plans to vote against it, a claim supported by coalition polls. According to “Stop Sinclair” campaign correspondence analyzed by The Baltimore Banner, an overwhelming 57% of campaign poll respondents planned to vote against Issue H, while only 6% said they planned to vote for it. Although this study was based on a small sample taken several months ago, It turned out that another 26% of respondents were undecided, and 11% needed additional information.

But many still have not heard the opposition’s message.

Volunteers knocking on doors last Sunday in the leafy and expensive Homeland neighborhood had better luck than usual in getting people to answer. But as of Oct. 20, the group, organized by Councilman Zeke Cohen, had knocked on just over 1,600 doors since the beginning of the month, speaking face-to-face with fewer than 600 people. While nearly everyone canvassers met with says they intend to vote against Question H, they represent less than 0.2% of Baltimore’s registered voters.

Councilman Mark Conway, who joined the Homeland agitators, explained to voters that the smaller size of the City Council would make it much less accessible. If the council is cut in half, he argues, city services will suffer.

For For at least some residents, the case for maintaining the 15-member status quo may be nuanced. One dog walker wondered whether cutting the size of the council made sense given Decades of Baltimore’s population decline? Another suggested that Conway was there to talk about another, high-profile campaign event.

“Is this the one about the harbor?” asked the woman who answered the door for Conway. The Homeland resident briefly listened to a councilman’s arguments against cutting City Council but soon turned the conversation to Question F, a referendum that would make way for a proposed nearly $1 billion downtown waterfront redevelopment.

Smith has so far contributed $415,000 to the group promoting Issue H, People for Electoral Accountability and Civic Engagement. But Sinclair’s chief executive hasn’t put any new money into the effort since February, and PEACE said this week it barely has $200 in the bank to get it into the home stretch before the election.

The bulk of PEACE’s spending was spent about a year ago, including paying canvassers to collect petition signatures that qualified their measure for the ballot. Baltimore Banner interviewed dozens of signatories and found that many don’t remember approving the ballot question – or now say they disagree with its purpose.

However, some residents expressed dissatisfaction with the mayor’s office and called for change.

“Turn it down. Cut it down to the bare minimum,” said East Baltimore resident Oleta Carter, who signed the PEACE petition because she believes the council is not interested in serving its constituents.

PEACE Chairman Giovani Patterson said he expects his committee to receive more money before the election, but he also acknowledged he’s mostly letting things unfold naturally.

At the same time, Patterson criticized city leaders for their organized efforts to block his proposal. When it comes to residents’ dissatisfaction with city government, Patterson said, elected leaders have been unable to take action. But “when people say we should have a say in how our government is run, the power of government essentially goes into protective mode.”

Earlier this month, the Stop Sinclair Committee reported that it had more than $155,000 in the bank, thanks to major donations from labor groups, as well as contributions from the mayor, six City Council members and one new member: Odette Ramos, Danielle McCray, Phylicia Porter , Ryan. Dorsey, Sharon Greene Middleton, Cohen and 8th District Democratic candidate Paris Gray.

The group said Friday it had spent more than half of its balance as of early October.

The group recently sent texts opposing Question H to about 181,000 voters and spent $74,000 on radio and online advertising earlier this month, according to internal Stop Sinclair emails reviewed by The Banner. Stop Sinclair expected to spend another $25,000 on advertising on Black radio stations, targeting a demographic that made up a disproportionate share of those who signed the PEACE ballot petition, according to a Banner analysis.

Reaching voters just before they go to the polls, during early voting and on Election Day is reportedly an important part of the Stop Sinclair strategy. The group plans to make final calls to voters by mail and send out another round of text messages the weekend before Election Day.

Like other members of the anti-Question H coalition, Cohen expressed confidence that residents who know about the proposal don’t want it. But the East Baltimore councilman acknowledged that too many people still haven’t heard their case. That’s partly because the referendum didn’t have a name until a few weeks ago, making it difficult to mount a full-scale publicity campaign, Cohen said.

While the Stop Sinclair campaign portrayed Smith as the villain and mastermind of Question H, some on the City Council shied away from that approach.

“To me, it’s not so much about the single person who sponsored the ballot question, but rather the incredibly negative impact it would have on voters if it were to pass,” said Cohen, the Democratic candidate to be the next Baltimore City Council president. .

Still, confronting Smith has proven to be an effective strategy for City Hall before. Some saw Scott’s landslide victory in the Democratic primary over Smith’s preferred candidate, former Mayor Sheila Dixon. as a rebuke of Chief Sinclair’s interference in city politics.

For at least one attendee at a recent community meeting in Park Heights, the David Smith factor changed his mind about Question H.

Rudy Merrick, a former U.S. Postal Service employee who has lived in the area for more than three decades, planned to vote on Question H. Merrick said he doesn’t feel represented by the City Council and believes the mayor is ineffective. He voted for Dixon, Smith’s candidate, in the Democratic primary.

But when a volunteer from the opposition Baltimore City is Not for Sale coalition stood up at a rally and spoke out against Smith, it caught Merrick’s attention.

Before the meeting, he did not know Smith’s name. But when he heard the opposition’s version that Chief Sinclair intended to “take control” of the city, he explained: “I was quite convinced by that.”

Baltimore Banner reporter Lee O. Sanderlin contributed to this story.