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Scientists warn that melting glaciers could trigger increased volcanic eruptions

Scientists warn that melting glaciers could trigger increased volcanic eruptions

Scientists have observed significant activity at Iceland’s Askja volcano in recent months, raising concerns that melting glaciers could trigger more volcanic eruptions. Since 2021, Askja has risen about 80 centimeters (32 inches) as 44 million cubic meters (1.6 billion cubic feet) of magma flowed into an existing reservoir about three kilometers (two miles) below the surface. Michelle Parks, a volcanologist at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, closely monitored Askja, including submerging a temperature probe in the crater lake Viti, which measured 26.4 degrees Celsius (79.5 degrees Fahrenheit), consistent with recent readings.

“The time scales can be quite short. Maybe a few hours… In case something happens, you need a plan to quickly evacuate the caldera,” explained Freystein Sigmundsson, a geophysicist at the University of Iceland and co-leader of Michelle Parks. government-funded project to study this phenomenon.

The research project aims to determine whether the rapid retreat of glaciers due to man-made climate change will lead to increased volcanic activity that could put the lives of many people around the world at risk. Glaciers now cover only 10% of Iceland’s land area, but that ice still weighs more than half of the country’s 34 active volcanic systems, and it is melting rapidly as global temperatures rise. Scientists predict that about half of the remaining volume of glaciers will disappear by the end of this century.

As glaciers retreat, the downward pressure on the Earth’s thin outer crust weakens, allowing the earth to rebound and raise the Earth’s surface. This could affect stress fields on Earth, creating new cracks beneath the volcano, which could lead to eruptions when the pressure is high enough. The sheer weight of glaciers and ice sheets can suppress volcanoes, but as the ice melts, magma can move more freely below the surface.

Historical data supports this theory. After the melting of the ice 10–15 thousand years ago, the frequency of volcanic eruptions on the island increased 30–50 times. Scientists found that the rate of eruptions increased by about 30 to 50 times during and shortly after the ice melt, compared to the previous ice age and the recent period. Michelle Parks said it was likely a catastrophic scenario with a “ridiculous number of eruptions” as rivers of lava reshaped the island and ash fell into the surrounding seas.

There are about 245 active or potentially active volcanoes in the world, located under or within five kilometers (three miles) of ice. About 160 million people live within 100 kilometers (62 miles) of at least one of these volcanoes, and 20,000 people live in close proximity. Such figures highlight the threat if melting glaciers lead to new volcanoes erupting, causing deadly floods and mudslides and sending huge clouds of ash and deadly gases into the atmosphere.

Increased volcanic activity can also worsen global warming. Eruptions rich in carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, can contribute to climate change by experiencing sulfur aerosols that can trigger initial periods of cooling. It is known that volcanoes beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet can accelerate the melting of ocean ice, raising sea levels.

Askja is of particular interest because although it has been ice-free for 10,000 years, it is recovering due to pressure changes resulting from glacial retreat affecting large parts of the Earth’s crust and mantle. Michelle Parks noted: “There’s more magma coming under Iceland, and we just don’t need it. We have enough of it.”

Another volcano of concern is Katla, located off the southern coast under a small ice cap. Since the Middle Ages, Katla has experienced more than 20 eruptions, with an average of one every 60 years. Katla is overdue due to a new eruption, having last erupted in 1918. During the 1918 eruption, the heat emanating from the Katla caldera quickly melted the ice at the top of the volcano, releasing a flow of water greater than the combined flow of the Amazon, Mississippi and Yangtze. rivers at the peak of their development.

The Icelandic government has developed contingency plans for an eruption like Katla and is working with local police districts to create short-term risk assessments for other volcanoes. The government has also used its volcanic foundation to its advantage, using geothermal energy to heat homes and businesses and attracting tourists to the rejuvenating geothermal baths.


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As glaciers continue to melt, the interaction between volcanoes and ice will remain a major challenge for volcanologists. The potential for increased volcanic activity due to retreating glaciers is a global concern, with scientists closely monitoring volcanoes beneath the ice in regions such as Antarctica and the Andes. In 2017, scientists reported the discovery of an additional 91 possible volcanoes hidden beneath the West Antarctic ice sheet.

“At the end of the day, we’re aiming for a much bigger picture with this project. This is the future of volcanic eruptions. How big can they be? … And what the future holds for us, not just in Iceland, but in the rest of Europe and perhaps beyond,” Michelle Parks said.

Scientists continue to collect data on ice retreat and magma formation to use in complex computer models. Their goal is to determine whether climate change may be playing a role in increased volcanic activity, which could have serious consequences for populations living near volcanoes and for the global climate.

Sources: Reuters, Tuoi Tre News, Izvestia.ru, The Indian Express, Alghad.

This article was written in collaboration with generative artificial intelligence company Alchemiq.