Resistance forces have pushed Myanmar’s military regime to the brink

BANGKOK – A year ago, three heavily armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeast Myanmar, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military, quickly seizing huge swathes of territory and inspiring others to attack across the country.

Military control seemed firmly entrenched in the face of enormous superiority in troops and firepower, as well as material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly in retreat, having lost dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders admit will be difficult to recapture.

“The military is on the defensive all over the country, and every time they focus their energies on one part of the country, they essentially have to move troops, and then they become vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor McDonald of the Special Advisory Council. by Myanmar Advocacy Group.

“It seems to us that the military has no real way back to retake lost territory.”

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, prompting increased fighting with long-established militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in border regions that have fought for decades for greater autonomy.

The army’s takeover also prompted the formation of pro-democracy militias known as the People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition Government of National Unity, which was created by elected lawmakers who were barred from taking their seats after the army seized power.

But until Operation 1027, named after its start on Oct. 27, the military force known as the Tatmadaw had largely managed to prevent major casualties across the country.

Operation 1027 resulted in coordinated attacks by the three most powerful ethnic armed groups known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured cities and captured military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan State.

Two weeks later, the Arakan Army began attacks on its western home state of Rakhine, and has since been joined by other militia groups and PDFs across the country.

Myanmar military pushed back to the center of the country

A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast area. It starts in Rakhine State in the west, passes through the north and then heads south to Kayah and Kayin states along the border with Thailand. The Tatmadaw retreated into central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyitaw and the largest city Yangon.

“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lwei Yai Oo, a spokesman for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told The Associated Press. “We only thought that we would attack the war council together as much as we could, but it turned out to be easier than expected, so we were able to win faster.”

Along the way, the Tatmadaw suffered several humiliating defeats, including the loss of the town of Laukkai in an attack in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 troops, including six generals; and the city of Lashio, where the Northeastern Command of the Armed Forces was located.

“The 1027 offensive was a very impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played a big role because they were essentially able to destroy the network of military fire support bases in northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based expert. an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who leads the project Mapping Conflict in Myanmar.

“And then, as the military’s artillery support weakened, they were able to capture more difficult targets such as cities and battalion headquarters.”

A year later, the army is “substantially weakened,” he said, but it is too early to write it off.

The army is weakened, but not defeated

The Tatmadaw managed to recapture the town of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which fell in the early days of the 1027 offensive, prevented an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah State, and retain administrative control of Myawaddy, a key border crossing with Thailand, after holding off an attack by one ethnic group with the help of a rival militia.

The military is widely expected to launch a counter-offensive as the rainy season soon ends, bolstered by some 30,000 new troops following the introduction of conscription in February and full air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, located in the center of the country.

And where they might be outgunned, over the past year they have gained strength, hard-won experience and confidence, said Lwai Yai Oo of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.

“We have military experience on our side, and based on this experience we can strengthen the combat operation,” she said.

Thet Swe, a spokesman for the military regime, admitted that it would not be easy for the Tatmadaw to oust the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territory it had conquered.

“We won’t be able to get it back for one year,” he told the AP in an emailed response to questions. “However, I hope to convey a joyful message to you… in the next two or three years.”

Civilian casualties rise as military increasingly resorts to indiscriminate strikes

As the military faces setbacks in combat on the ground, it increasingly relies on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, leading to a 95 percent increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170 percent increase in the number of civilians killed by artillery after the offensive 1027 began, according to a report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights published last month.

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians it believes are supporting resistance militias, a tactic that only further backfires on them, said Isabelle Todd, the group’s SAC-M coordinator.

“It doesn’t seem to have the effect they want,” she said. “This makes them even more hateful to the population and really strengthens the resolve to ensure that this is the end of the Myanmar Army, as it is called.”

Military spokesman Thet Swe denied allegations of attacks on civilians, saying militia groups were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been forced from their homes by the fighting, and there are currently more than 3 million internally displaced people and about 18.6 million people in need of assistance in Myanmar, according to the UN.

At the same time, the humanitarian response plan for 2024 is only one-third funded, which is hampering the delivery of aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs’ operation in Myanmar.

“The humanitarian outlook for the next year is grim and we expect the deteriorating situation to have a huge impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.

But the offensive has eased the pressure in some areas, such as in northwestern Chin state, which borders Bangladesh and India and was previously the center of many Tatmadaw operations, said Salai Htet Ni, a spokesman for the Chin National Front, whose armed wing took part in the fighting. actions in the army.

“In October last year, military convoys heading to the Chin Mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “Operation 1027 resulted in virtually no major military action.”

Success brings new tension between resistance groups

As the front expanded, militias were seen moving out of their ethnic territories, such as when the Rakhine-based Arakan Army captured the Chin town of Paletwa in January, causing some friction between the factions, foreshadowing possible future strife if the Tatmadaw eventually fell.

In the case of Paletwa, Salai Htet Ni said his group was glad that the AA had taken it from the Tatmadaw, but added that negotiations should have been held before they began operating in Chin territory and that the AA must now bring Chin forces into help. manage the territory.

“Negotiations on these issues with the regional administration are mandatory,” he said. “But we will negotiate this case through dialogue and not through military means.”

For now, there is a degree of solidarity between different ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, communications director at the Myanmar Institute of Strategy and Policy think tank, said this is not leading to shared aspirations.

The fall of the Tatmadaw could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

“As far as I can see, there is no established mechanism for resolving issues,” he said. “Resistance capable of overthrowing the junta is unlikely, but I cannot discount this scenario (and) if we fail to build trust and common goals, it could lead to the Syria scenario.”

Chinese interests and ties to both sides complicate the picture

The political picture is complicated by the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive, which proved to be a successful attempt to largely curb the organized crime activities that flourished along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with the Tatmadaw and Three Brothers to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan that lasted five months until the ethnic alliance launched the second phase of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the regime. cease-fire.

China was unhappy with the development and closed border crossings, cut power in Myanmar cities and took other measures in a so-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.

Support for the regime also appears to be growing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar calling on the powerful United Wa State Army, which was not involved in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively pressure the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang. The National Liberation Army will stop the renewed offensive, according to leaked details of an August meeting widely covered by local media.

However, there is no evidence that the UWSA did this.

“The idea that the northern factions, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, etc. are somehow just agents of China is a complete fallacy,” Todd said.

“They have their own goals that they pursue and they are independent of what China wants or doesn’t want from them, and this is evident in the incredible pressure that China has been putting on them lately.”

Because of the resistance’s widespread support, it is less vulnerable to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, a spokesman for the opposition government of national unity.

“No matter who puts pressure on us, we win because of the power of the people,” he said.