Tips, review and best bets for the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar

The Breeders’ Cup kicks off this weekend at Del Mar Racecourse in California, where there are several chances for the British and Irish contingents.

It’s one of the biggest events on the racing calendar in the world, let alone just the US, with a variety of graded events, a staggering 14 in fact, from turf to dirt and from 5ft to 1m4ft.

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Breeders’ Cup Tips

• Juvenile sprint on turf: Esteria and Big Mojo (Swinger)
• Lawn for young mares: Lake Victoria 11/10
• Juvenile lawn: Al-Qudra 6/1
• Sprint on the lawn: Big Eves 14/1
• Breeders’ Cup Turf: Rebel Romance 3/1
• Breeders Classic Cup: Forever young 6/1

Swinger

There is a lot to go through in terms of Breeders’ Cup selection given how many races there are, especially those that are hotly contested against some familiar names from British and Irish racing.

The first race to focus on is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, a distance over 5 feet for 2-year-olds, which includes Esterius, Big Mojo, Whistlejacket, Ides of March, Magnum Force, Shareholder and Arizona Blaze from Ireland and Britain.

The last one on this list is a bit vulnerable given that he has already completed six races and only one win, which came on his debut.

However, the rest have some value and potential to go abroad. Ides of March attracting many, Frankie Dettori is aboard the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt.

Wathnan Racing had acquired a wealth of talent prior to the flat season and continued to acquire several top horses while investing heavily in the flat.

It could pay off handsomely with a couple of good places here, with the winner going home with over £400,000.

The Breeders Cup is quite unique in terms of racing in the US and the tracks, even the 5th round has a turn.

Big Evs won the event last year under Tom Marquand for trainer Michael Appleby, the year before that it was won by William Buick aboard Godolphin Charlie Appleby Mischief Magic, and the year before that Twilight Gleaming won at Del Mar.

But the only pair that really have consistency and proven form over 5f are Big Eus and Esterius, who used to be close to each other.

Since this race is part of the World Pool, it would be smart to place a betting bet on these two finishing in the top three in any order.

Lake Victoria

Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien have had a fruitful season with many large group winners and many overall winners.

Here they could get a big prize with the favorite and the unbeaten, Lake Victoria.

Frankel’s two-year-old filly is an obvious choice in the stakes and for good reason.

She has already earned more than £400,000 in prize money and could double that if she runs well over 1m here.

Promotion in Trip is likely to suit this Frankel filly for obvious reasons and her form is exceptional across a range of conditions, in Group 1 competition as well as 6f and 7f.

Al-Qudra

International runners also dominate the juvenile turf among colts, geldings and ridgelings.

This competition is also held over 1 meter and is the best race for future stars in every sense of the word as they can become top riders and producers.

And the one who really stands out is Al Qudra, his form has been noted on numerous occasions even in past meetings where he has won, beating New Century comfortably at Ascot in July before they swapped places at Woodbine next time in September.

He is also versatile over distances and it is rare to see a horse win or do well in the 5ft, 6ft, 7ft and 1m distances as a two-year-old.

To do this, he should support all sides against new and old rivals.

Big Eves

Looking at Cogburn in this turf sprint, over 5 feet for colts, horses, mares, etc. over 3 years old, it is likely that he is not a good bet here.

Last time out he beat Haadem, who has a long history of finishing in Britain’s top competition, and while he has a hat-trick of wins and impressive form, the 5ft sprints are often unpredictable.

Bradsell and Beliving battled throughout the season, but both were beaten by Makarova at Longchamp, perhaps on soft ground that narrowly stole the show.

But back on California’s terra firma, perhaps it’s time for a Big Evs revival.

He beat Asfura at Goodwood in August and after a disappointing 8th place finish at York hasn’t been seen since.

He, of course, won the Breeders Cup in the junior turf sprint last year and is now competing in the senior equivalent this year, albeit competing against four, five and six year olds.

That kind of form and experience is hard to beat as moving overseas affects many horses differently and it looks like a smart bet that will come at a huge price in both cases.

Rebel Romance

We now compete in a Level 1 competition with big prize pools, with the Breeders’ Cup turf covering over 1m4 worth over £2 million to the winner alone, plus some amazing prizes.

Rebel’s Romance, Emily Upjohn, Jayarebe, Luxembourg, Wingspan, Far Bridge and Shahryar are reporting odds ranging from 3/1 to 12/1 at the time of writing.

It looks like this competition will go the way of Ireland or Britain, with the beloved Rebel’s Romance likely to end up there.

He won this race in 2022 at Keeneland by more than two lengths before Stone Age, and has since won at Doha, Meydan, Kempton and Cologne.

The horse loves to go to different countries and win, and this is certainly the case when it comes to the wide open competition that he can take part in under the leadership of William Buick.

Forever young

Now on to the biggest race of all, the £2.86 million 1m2ft event – the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

City Of Troy was drawn in the third tray, resulting in a slight variation in its price as the winner had not come out of that tray since 1998.

It is very likely that this appears to be a coincidence, since in recent years the lower stalls do seem to contain the winners of this race.

These statistics may also be skewed by the fact that at times there were only eight runners, compared to the 14 who competed in 2018.

Another statistic that dominates the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the fact that winners from the United States have only been seen for over a decade.

Because of the way these races are run, it’s not always surprising to see the more expensive runners take the places, but the winners tend to be at the front of the betting row.

This only gives more reasons to support Japanese runner Forever Young.

With five wins from just six rounds, with his only attempt coming to Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby losing narrowly, he was priced at an excellent 6/1 to make a big run for the international contingent.

All of his runs have been on fibrous sand or artificial surfaces, which only increases his chances over City Of Troy, who has only been seen on turf.

Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss

• October 24: +21.57
• From May 24: +155.99 points
• From July 23: +368.55 points

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All odds are valid at the time of writing

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