Steve Cohen and the Mets put the Phillies in a difficult position heading into the offseason.

Sometimes you have to play the cards you’re dealt. In other cases, you will have to play cards that you dealt yourself. Phyllis this offseason will most likely find themselves in the second category. Their cards are placed face up in front of them. Their chip stack is in the center of the table. While Steve Cohen bets on aces, John Middleton must hope that his jokers will turn into kings.

This is a twisted metaphor. I hope you get the picture. Juan Soto probably won’t walk through that door. Anyone who expects him to do so – or who blames the Phillies when he doesn’t – should know a thing or two about this year’s market. Cohen and Metz will set prices. Any trade war the Phillies end up winning would probably be better off not winning.

This is the reality Phyllis will have to deal with. The Mets could pay Yankees star Soto an average of $45 million per year, pay Orioles ace Corbin Burns $30 million per year and re-sign Pete Alonso to a $25 million per year contract and they would still have it would be a smaller amount. salary than what Phyllis already has. Think about it.

Don’t get lost in the details. These AAVs are likely lower than they will ultimately be. But the point remains valid. The Mets are scary right now. It has nothing to do with them victory over the Phillies in the NLDS. They will still be scary. The fear has become a little more real now that we’ve seen what the Mets were capable of even before they lost over $95 million in dead money from their payroll.

In truth, the 2024 Mets were not a Cinderella story. They were a trust fund princess during the holiday year. The lineup that beat the Phillies in the NLDS accounted for only about $240 million of the Mets’ projected MLB payroll of $358 million. At the time, the Mets were spending roughly $41 million on players they released, plus about $53 million more on players they traded. You could spend the whole day laughing at the various oddities in their balance.

Exhibit A: Between the $7.5 million Omar Narvaez received in June and the $8 million James McCann received traded to the Orioles, the Mets spent more money on non-roster catchers than the Dodgers spent on Will Smith. the fourth-highest paid catcher in baseball.

Exhibit B: The Mets’ official payroll, the one used to determine luxury tax penalties, included $57.1 million in payments to the Rangers and Astros as part of their deals with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in 2023 . That’s $100,000 less than the Mets paid for their entire playoff rotation (Kodai Senga, Sean Manea, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, David Peterson).

Starting this offseason, all that dead money is gone. The Mets will enter free agency with a payroll that includes approximately $117.5 million in guaranteed contracts. Expecting them are Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Edwin Diaz, Jeff McNeil and Senga. Besides, the world is their oyster.

That total doesn’t include much of their playoff roster—Quintana, Severino and Manea are eligible for free agency, as is Alonso. It also does not include the pre-arbitration salaries of playoff starters Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Reed Garrett and Jose Butto.

But let’s talk apples for apples. That $117.5 million figure? That’s $102.5 million less than what the Phillies committed to in guaranteed contracts for 2025. That means the Mets will enter the offseason with at least $102.5 million more spending power, assuming both teams operate under the same cap, whatever that may be.

What is that upper limit for the Phillies? To a certain extent this is a relevant question. Dave Dombrowski introduced it at his end-of-season press conference, as he does every year.

Do the Phillies have the financial wherewithal to take on a free agent star (like Soto)?

“I don’t think we need more star players,” Dombrowski said. “We have as many stars as anyone in baseball. So I don’t think you necessarily need to add anything. John (Middleton) is very kind and generous, but you’re also in a position where you still have to work with a salary. …Would you be ready for this? Yes, but I think you have to be careful because sometimes it’s not just the star players, but sometimes the supporting actors too. And if you look at it again, we’ve had eight All-Stars, right? I know they’re not all veterans, but that’s more than anyone in baseball.”

Even if the Phillies can spend more, it may not matter. The real question is whether they will be able to spend more than other teams who will be vying for a star like Soto. This answer is obvious. No, they can’t. A larger whale will hit the market this year.

Dombrowski will have to get creative if he wants to significantly change the face of his team. The Phillies can’t rely on shopping the top free agent market to meet their needs. They need to find value in free agency where other teams don’t see it. Or they need to trade value for value in the trading market. Basically, they need to hope that the money they’ve already invested doesn’t end up as dead as it did for the Mets. Dombrowski and Middleton wrote their own big checks. Now players need to earn them.