Analysis: Nebraska Football vs. UCLA

As the season enters its final stretch, Nebraska football finds itself in a familiar situation: only one win is needed to become bowl eligible, a situation reminiscent of Matt Rhule’s first year. You probably already have enough reminders about how November 2023 went, so I won’t repeat it. In both of his previous college stints, Rhule entered the game in November two games shy of bowl eligibility in his second year. He is no stranger to pressure. In both of those seasons, he won Game 5 in the first week of November. Eager for drama, he waited until the final game to achieve his sixth victory.

This weekend will be the Huskers’ best chance to get their sixth win. UCLA is a below average football team, but they are coming off their best game of the season. They’ve had the toughest schedule in the country, so they’re no strangers to tough games. This is still a game Nebraska should win if it can avoid turnovers and play clean on special teams.

This week’s quarterback schedule is interesting. Both players went their separate ways early in the year, but their EPA totals for the season were even again. UCLA’s Ethan Garbers threw a pick in every game of the season before posting a 4-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio against Rutgers. For the Huskers, Rutgers started a streak of three straight games in which Dylan Raiola had an interception.

I expect UCLA to churn out yards in the air against Nebraska. They rank 37th in the country in passing success rate (a measure of how well a team performs against its competitors). Despite their ability to move the ball, they rank 84th in EPA/pass at -0.02. The Bruins average 1.3 steals per game, the highest in the Big Ten. This has significantly hampered their passing attack, which otherwise signals potential ball movement.

This UCLA passing defense could be just what the doctor ordered for a Huskers offense looking to get its offense back on track. UCLA faced the most pass attempts of any Big Ten team, allowed the most passing yards, the highest completion percentage and the most touchdown passes. Although UCLA effectively limits explosive plays, they tend to be vulnerable to consistent and short-term gains. Raiola should be able to throw a 200-yard pass with a 70% completion rate against this defense.

UCLA is one of the worst teams in the country at running the ball. They rank last nationally in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns per game. QB Garbers had his longest run of the season at 49 yards. Their longest run by a running back is just 22 yards by Keegan Jones (not pictured). Only Kennesaw State has a worse scoring record than the Bruins in its first FBS football season. The Blackshirts should have a good day defending the track.

Nebraska running back Dante Dowdell had his best game of the conference against a stout Buckeye Run defense last Saturday. Raiola also excelled on the ground, adding 31 yards rushing to help the Huskers surpass the 100-yard mark for the second time against Big Ten opponents. UCLA has a good defense that ranks 33rd in EPA allowed/peak this season.

UCLA is better than it might seem at first glance. They played four teams in the current AP Top 16, but lost all four games. Nebraska also faced four currently ranked opponents and picked up a win over Colorado. I think the Huskers match up well with the Bruins. UCLA will likely get its yards against a defensive play that demands “bend but don’t break,” resulting in several big turnovers. Nebraska must maintain its confidence after a close game against Ohio State and get a comfortable win to secure bowl eligibility.

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