Oregon vs Michigan Score Prediction Using Expert Model

In a remarkable Big Ten matchup, defending champion Michigan hosts No. 1 title favorite Oregon on Saturday. Let’s check out the latest game predictions using an expert model that predicts the scores and picks the winners.

Oregon is one of the few remaining undefeated teams in college football, averaging five touchdowns per game and exactly 300 passing yards and outscoring its last two opponents 73-9.

Michigan moved to 3-2 in Big Ten play with a win over rival Michigan State, but still lacks vertical play, ranking 129th among 134 FBS teams in passing yards and 110th. by performance.

What do analytical models suggest when the Wolverines and Ducks meet in Big Ten play?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ forecasting model to get an idea of ​​how Michigan and Oregon compare in this Week 10 college football matchup.

So far, the models are calling for a comfortable win for the Ducks over the Wolverines.

SP+ predicts Oregon to beat Michigan by a landslide predicted score from 32 to 19 and win the match with an advantage the expected difference is 12.5 points.

The model gives the Ducks 78 percent probability pure victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted college football performance metric” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most consistent and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is currently 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 winning percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Oregon is Favorite with a rating of 14.5 points against Michigan, according to updates posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel has set the amount at 45.5 points per game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at: -720 and for Michigan in +490 win outright.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

For now, most bettors are taking a different stance, expecting the Ducks to dominate the Wolverines, according to the latest consensus projections for the game.

Oregon becomes 66 percent bets to win the game and cover a large point spread.

Another 34 percent Betting Draft Michigan will either win outright in a loss or keep the game with fewer touchdowns in a loss.

Michigan is the only team in college football with Average difference in performance 0.0 points this season.

Oregon is doing better, on average. 20.7 points better than his opponents in 2024.

Over the last three games, those averages have diverged as Oregon has played 21.7 points better than his opponents at the time, while Michigan was 5.7 points worse.

And those numbers diverge again when it comes to venue: Michigan 4 points better than the opposition at home, while Oregon 30.3 points better when you play on the road.

Most other analytical models also project a comfortable win for the Ducks on the road.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is expected to win the game with a majority vote. 77.8 percent from the latest computer simulations of the match.

That leaves Michigan as the projected winner in the remaining 22.2 percent Sims.

In total, the Ducks took the lead in 15,560 game index predictions, while the Wolverines were ahead of Oregon in the remaining 4,440 predictions.

How does this affect the expected advantage in the game?

Oregon is projected to be 11.3 points better than Michigan on the same field in the game’s latest simulations, and the model predicts both teams will go head-to-head.

Oregon ranks first among Big Ten teams with Probability 87.6 percent to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Ducks a win total forecast 11.6 games this season.

Michigan ranks seventh in the Big Ten with 0.1 percent shot in the playoffs, but should be in the postseason, on 88.3 percent will likely play a bowl game.

Index predicts UM victory 6.3 games in ’24.

When: Saturday, November 2.
Time: 3:30 PM ET | 12:30 pm Pacific Time
TV: CBS network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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