Pitt vs. SMU Score Prediction Using Expert Football Model

A pair of teams undefeated in conference play will meet this weekend when No. 20 SMU hosts No. 18 Pittsburgh in a game full of ACC title implications. Let’s check out the updated prediction for this match, based on the analytical model that predicts the score and picks the winners.

Pittsburgh upset Syracuse a week ago thanks to some defensive heroics, including three interceptions and a return touchdown, to move the team to 7-0 on the year.

SMU needed Duke to miss a 2-point attempt late last week to come away with a 1-point win despite 6 road losses of its own and is 4-0 in ACC play.

What do the analytical models suggest as the Mustangs and Panthers meet in this ACC showdown?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ forecasting model to get an idea of ​​how Pittsburgh and SMU compare in this Week 10 college football matchup.

So far, the models give the home team a slight advantage in this crucial match.

SP+ predicts that SMU would defeat Pittsburgh 30-25. and win the game with an advantage expected difference 4.9 points in progress.

The model gives the Mustangs probability 62 percent pure victory regardless of the difference.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted college football performance metric” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most consistent and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is currently 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 winning percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

SMU is Favorite with a rating of 7.5 points against Pittsburgh, according to updated data posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total on 58.5 points per game (Over -114, Under -106).

And that set the moneyline odds for SMU at -275 and for Pittsburgh in +220 win outright.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

According to the latest game consensus projections, most players currently expect the Panthers to challenge the Mustangs.

Pittsburgh is becoming 78 percent bets on either winning outright in the event of a setback on the road, or saving the game to a touchdown or less in the event of a loss.

Another 22 percent betting project SMU will win the game and cover the spread.

Pittsburgh’s average this year 12.7 points better than its opponents on the same field, while SMU did well 12.9 points better than competitors in 2024.

In the last three games, both teams have played equally against their opponents.

Pittsburgh was 13.3 points better average than its opponents during that time, while SMU was 12.7 points better than the competition during this period.

Playing on the road, Pitt saw its winning margin slip, winning games by 5.5 points on average against opponents away from home.

SMU was 15.7 points better than their opponents on average when playing at home this season.

Most other analytics models favor the Mustangs over the undefeated Panthers.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

SMU is expected to win the power play. 70.2 percent from the latest computer simulations of the match.

That leaves Pittsburgh as the projected winner in the remaining 29.8 percent Sims.

What can we expect from an advantage in the game? Expect something close.

According to forecasts, SMU will be 7.7 points better than Pittsburgh has done on the same field in recent simulations of both teams, according to the model’s latest prediction.

SMU ranks third among ACC teams with Probability 20.5 percent to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

In that category, the Mustangs trail Clemson (33.7%) and ACC leader Miami (89%).

SMU will win 10.3 games this season, according to the model’s latest win projections.

Pittsburgh follows closely behind, ranking fourth in the ACC with Probability 20.5 percent make the playoffs this year.

This projection includes Total wins 9.4 score for the Panthers, according to the index.

When: Saturday, November 2.
Time: 8:00 PM ET | 7:00 pm Central Time
TV: ACC Network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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