Huge problem with polls about Trump’s mass deportation plan

Trump and his allies have described their intentions toward immigrants in overtly fascist terms. Trump said immigrants “poisoning the blood of our country” and this “pulling them out will be a bloody story” He promised to use the army to round up millions of immigrants. including people here legally – V mass detention camps and deport them, causing unimaginable social and economic chaos. However, for months we have seen headlines suggesting that a majority of Americans, including a significant portion or even a majority of Latinos, support mass deportations.

These headlines are the result of what I call “pollwashing”—the use of polls to “reveal” popular support for something that poll takers don’t fully understand. There is ample evidence (often in the same polls) that people support the abstract idea of ​​“mass deportation” while opposing the details of what Trump’s planned mass deportation would actually entail. But we hear nothing about this contradiction. And such silence risks lending false legitimacy to Trump’s plans.

For example, 54% of voters in September Scripps/Ipsos poll said they support “mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.” but a much larger share (68%) said they support a path to citizenship for Dreamers, who face deportation under Trump’s plans. In October New York Times/Siena Poll45% of Latino voters said they support “deporting immigrants living in the United States illegally back to their home countries,” but 67% said they support “providing a path to citizenship for all illegal immigrants currently living in the United States.” .

In focus groups on Joint research activitiesWe often see that Latinos who are willing to vote for Trump do not realize that his deportation plans could affect their own friends or family members. They believe he will only deport those who have recently crossed the border. But their views quickly change once they realize that Trump can and will destroy noncitizens—documented or undocumented—who have been living here for decades.

A recent survey conducted Data for progress confirms that this dynamic holds true for the majority of voters across the country. When voters were given nine specific examples of immigrants without legal status, only two categories supported deportation with a majority—a person who had recently crossed the border and a person with a conviction for a nonviolent crime. For seven other examples, such as a graduate student who overstayed his visa or a person who has lived here for 15 years and has U.S.-born children, less than a third of respondents supported deportation.

This kind of poll propaganda is very dangerous for two reasons. First, a potentially crucial number of voters (not just Latinos) who would have rejected Trump if they knew his real plans may instead decide to stay home or even vote for him. Second, if Trump wins, it will create the false impression that he has a mandate to carry out his cruel and destructive plans for mass deportation.

Voters are more likely to turn out to vote if they feel they have something to lose by staying home. Pollwashing takes this out of the conversation entirely. Experts try to predict why people vote by studying polls that rank issues as “most important” to voters. However, as we saw in the 2022 midterm elections, people may consider “abortion” less “important” than “the economy” in a poll, but they will still advocate en masse for repealing or preventing abortion bans. When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, With Trump’s three candidates providing the deciding votes, people suddenly realized how much they had to lose if they voted for MAGA.

The most alarming thing about this election is how much less concern there is about the prospects for a second Trump term than there was four years ago, despite significant evidence that we should be much more concerned now than we were then. Like me argued for a long timeWhether Trump loses this year will depend on whether there are enough voters understand how much they have to lose if he wins. We can’t predict this with a poll, but we can change this by doing everything we can to educate voters about the stakes. And that includes responsible conduct and reporting of polls.