Who is winning the presidential election now? What the polls predict

There are only five days left until the elections. Donald Trump And Kamala Harris are still locked in a tight battle in Arizona, a swing state for presidential elections where a narrow difference can determine the outcome.

Both candidates and their vice presidential running mates campaigned combatively in Arizona in the weeks leading up to the election. They rallied, visited border towns and reached out to different demographic groups.

Trump and Harris both visited metro Phoenix on Thursdayshowing how important the Grand Canyon State is in this election. The vice president’s visit was in conjunction with a campaign event featuring music group Los Tigres del Norte, while the former president was in town for a live performance with Tucker Carlson.

Polls and odds have shown a shift in momentum and how close the presidential race has become in recent months. But who has the best chance to win the battle in Arizona and the nation, and can the ground game help tip the scales?

That’s it polls, chances And historians – they say ahead of election day on Tuesday, November 5.

Who is leading in the US polls?

Poll results and odds are constantly changing, but here is each candidate’s standing as of 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading national polls with 48% and Trump with 46.8%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as much as 4 percentage points in posts, although more recent polls show them much closer.
270towin shows Harris leading by 1.2 percentage points over Trump in national polls.
Realclearpolling shows betting odds favor Trump with a spread of +0.3.

Who is leading in the polls in Arizona?

Trump has been increasingly ahead of Harris in most Arizona polls in recent weeks, but polls show the race is still incredibly close in the battleground state.

Here is each candidate’s standing as of 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

ABC News Project 538 shows Trump leading Harris in Arizona polls by 2.3 percentage points over Harris.
270towin shows Trump leading in Arizona polls by 1.8 percentage points over Harris.
Realclearpolling shows the odds of winning Arizona favoring Trump with a +2.3 spread.

The historian who predicted 9 out of 10 elections weighs in.

Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, DC. He received his PhD from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last ten presidential elections and has confirmed his prediction of which candidate will win back the White House.

This year he predicts victory for Vice President Kamala Harris.

How accurate were the election results or polls in the last presidential election?

betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866According to the nonprofit news organization Conversation.

electoral record This is a more difficult task because different pollsters surveying different populations can often have a higher chance of error.

According to Pew researchConfidence in public opinion polling has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this story.