Warning! 2 FTSE 100 shares I think could crash in 2025

I think these FTS 100 shares could fall lower next year. Here’s why.

Lloyds Banking Group

Lloyds (LSE: LLOY) the share price is up an impressive 34% over the past year. While investors celebrate this significant growth, I fear that bankThe stratospheric economic recovery is unfounded, and it faces a correction in the near future.

First, it faces a long period of weak income growth, accompanied by weak lending and further loan impairment. This reflects the poor outlook for the UK economy and the bank’s lack of overseas exposure.

I also worry that the expected reduction in interest rates will hurt Lloyds’ profits. While the Bank of England’s actions will stimulate the economy, they will also erode banks’ net interest margins (NIM), a key measure of profitability.

However, the biggest threat to Lloyds’ share price may come from the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) investigation into the misselling of car loans. Black Horse Bank is a major provider of car finance and has set aside £450 million to cover possible fines related to “secret” commissions between lenders and car dealers.

However, this may not be enough. RBC Capital believes Lloyds may have to pay £3.2bn, down from the £2.5bn the broker had previously forecast.

As a result, RBC also believes the bank may have to halve share buybacks planned for next year to £1 billion. If this starts to look likely, and if the wider news flow around the investigation worsens, then Lloyds’ share price could fall sharply.

FTSE The company has one of the strongest banking brands. This, in turn, could help it boost profits even at a time when the domestic economy is struggling.

But overall I think the firm is taking on too much risk right now.

BP

Oil giants such as BP (LSE: BP.) will also face tough conditions in 2025, which could hurt their share prices. In particular, they may experience sharp falls in energy prices as supply and demand pressures increase.

The situation looks grim as the OPEC+ cartel prepares to increase production, demand for renewable energy rises and oil supplies to China continue to lag.

Both OPEC and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently lowered their demand forecasts. And a fresh Reuters poll shows experts believe the price of Brent oil will average $80.55 a barrel in 2024 and $76.61 the following year. Both ratings are downgrades from previous ratings.

An escalation of conflict in the Middle East may well cause prices to exceed these forecasts. But overall the picture for oil prices is quite bleak. And this is especially problematic for BP given its low refining margins.

BP’s efforts to reduce its $24 billion net debt pose another major threat to its share price. Given the poor oil price outlook and the company’s cash-draining operations, this could have serious implications for future share buybacks and dividends.