When will we know the results of the 2024 presidential election? – NBC New York

When will we know the results of the 2024 presidential election? Experts say the results likely won’t be known on Election Day.

“This will be election week, not Election Day,” said Democratic strategist Peter Giangreco.

While presidential race results often take time, there will be some changes in 2024 that could delay voters’ responses.

Changes to voter ID laws and the early voting process in North Carolina could slow down vote counting.

Meanwhile, laws in key swing states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania mean clerks cannot process mail-in ballots until Election Day. In 2020, these states were decided by approximately 20,000 and 80,000 votes, respectively.

“In other states they can open them, they can check them. They can smooth them out, so all they have to do is run them through the scanners. You can’t even touch them in Pennsylvania,” Giangreco said. “So we’ll probably look at Friday or Saturday before we know Pennsylvania.”

But delays in the presidential race are not unusual, according to Dr. Kevin Boyle, chair of the history department at Northwestern University.

“There are a lot of stories about presidential candidates just going to bed not knowing whether they won the presidency or not,” Boyle said.

In 2020, it took four days before President Joe Biden was officially named the winner. In 2000, the results hinged on just 537 votes in Florida, where networks called for the state to favor Al Gore and then George W. Bush before ruling the race was “too close to call.”

There were many elections in the 19th and 20th centuries that were not held on election night.

“Even in 1960, John Kennedy was not declared the winner of the presidency until the next day,” Boyle said. “Richard Nixon was not declared the winner of the 1968 presidency until the next day. And then there was something like an explosion of exit polls that made it easier to pick a winner faster, to name a winner faster. And many elections weren’t very close until 2000.”

In addition to delays in counting votes, experts also say legal challenges are likely before a final announcement is made.

Sharon McMahon, a podcast host and former educator known as “America’s Government Teacher,” said there are “a very, very large number of lawsuits that are already in progress and will be filed.”

“There are already more than 100 election-related lawsuits in the works and many more on lawyers’ desks. They’re just waiting to fill in the details and waiting to submit them,” McMahon said. “If we think there have been over 60 lawsuits filed in post-2020 elections, there will likely be twice as many in this election.”

So what can you do to get results sooner?

Giangreco said there is one scenario in which results could come closer to Election Day.

“Only if (Donald) Trump wins Wisconsin or Michigan,” Giangreco said. “If he wins any of these states, this will probably be over. And if we find out those states on Wednesday, that will probably be the case. I think Kamala Harris’ most likely path to the presidency is in the blue wall states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.”

Whether this will happen is unclear.

“Here’s what it comes down to: If the polls are right and all the same, Harris has a huge lead on the ground, especially in the blue wall states, and I think that’s her ticket to victory. If there is response bias like we saw in 2016 and 2020, where polls were under-reporting Trump voters, then you could see Trump actually up four or five points in all of those states, and that would be an overwhelming majority in the election . for Trump and perhaps even winning the popular vote. So either the polls are right and Harris’ field operation will win, or the polls are wrong and it will be a good night for Trump.”

Another potential scenario looms this fall: “contingent elections” for president and vice president, which could occur if no one can secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

That hasn’t happened in the modern era, but the Electoral College map has several possible (though unlikely) paths that could lead to Trump and Harris ending the race tied at 269 electoral votes.

In case of a draw, Congress will determine the next president.