Top Best Picture Candidates

‘Anora’

What’s happening: The escort makes a deal with the oligarch’s son. Then the gangsters get involved.
Reason to believe: Three of the last four Palme d’Or winners did best editing for “Neon” – and one won (Parasite).
Reason for doubt: Are indie Baker and his unusual ideas too appealing to some voters?

“Blitz”

What’s happening: A single mother and her son are separated in Blitz-era London.
Reason to believe: Period reputation and former Oscar favorite Steve McQueen.
Reason for doubt: Saving Private Ryan, Dunkirk, 1917: These days, films about World War II generally don’t do well.

“Brutalist”

What’s happening: An architect who escaped the Holocaust travels to the United States to live an epic life.
Reason to believe: A large-scale vision that lasts more than three hours.
Reason for doubt: A large-scale vision that lasts more than three hours.

“Complete unknown”

What’s happening: Bob Dylan goes online in Newport and everyone needs shelter from the storm.
Reason to believe: After scaling forward with Ford vs Ferrari Mangold races to the finish line. And also Timothée Chalamet as an icon.
Reason for doubt: Will rock-folk tensions be significant enough in 2024?

“Conclave”

What’s happening: Dad dies and everyone wants the big job.
Reason to believe: Delicious entertainment in serious clothes.
Reason for doubt: Is this enough? Plus a controversial ending.

“Dune: Part Two”

What’s happening: New adventures for Paul Atreides as he forges new alliances and fights new wars.
Reason to believe: A franchise and director that has been going strong for years.
Reason for doubt: Epics about distant planets and March releases are often forgotten.

“Emilia Perez”

What’s happening: A typical Spanish-language cartel thriller/family drama with a trans theme and musical elements.
Reason to believe: Sheer chutzpah, timely relevance.
Reason for doubt: Is the Never-Netflix voter still relevant?

“Gladiator 2”

What’s happening: The matured Lucius returns to Rome to restore glory to his people.
Reason to believe: Nostalgia… both for the Roman period and for the times of the studio historical epic.
Reason for doubt: “Didn’t we honor this movie in 2001?”

“Seed of the Sacred Fig”

What’s happening: A family in repressive Iran is torn apart by politics.
Reason to believe: Geopolitical resonance and a director who fled Iran with his film.
Reason for doubt: It’s not often that long-form foreign-language dramas set on the other side of the world get their best picture.

‘September 5’

What’s happening: One day in Munich, in the ABC News control room during the 1972 Olympics.
Reason to believe: Relevance in the spirit of Sorkin regarding important topics in the media.
Reason for doubt: Global indies may struggle without as many crew members and directors that voters know. Plus the tense Israeli-Palestinian background.

‘Wicked’

What’s happening: The witches Elphaba and Glinda begin their journey.
Reason to believe: This Cats or this Chicago?
Reason for doubt: This Chicago or this Cats?

“Wild Robot”

What’s happening: Robot Rose lands on Animal Island and learns to feel.
Reason to believe: A heartfelt and accessible film about artificial intelligence. Besides, it’s already a hit.
Reason for doubt: Only three animated films were nominated; no one won.

This story appeared in the October 30 issue of The Hollywood Reporter. Click here to subscribe.