Findings and trends you should and shouldn’t respond to

Suddenly, conference tiebreakers became a thing of the past. In the three Power Four conferences, the paths to the conference championship games should be pretty clear.

In the Big Ten, Indiana’s winner at Ohio State will face Oregon on Nov. 23. In the Big 12, Kansas State champion Iowa State is scheduled to face BYU in Dallas in the regular-season finale; Never before has Farmageddon meant so much. And in the ACC, SMU and Miami will have a lead in every remaining game as the last two undefeated players in the conference.

However, the SEC could become intriguing. If — and this is a big if — LSU beats Alabama this week, and if Texas goes on the road and beats Texas A&M in the regular-season finale, there’s a distinct chance Georgia, at 11-1, will be left out of the SEC title game.

Welcome to a life of bloated conferences and unbalanced schedules.

College Football Week: 10 Things You Shouldn’t Overreact to

Don’t overreact to this SEC thought. There are still hurdles to overcome, but the first year of the SEC’s scattered divisions could lead to absolute and joyful chaos.

In this scenario—Georgia, Texas and LSU all finish 7-1 in SEC play—the tiebreakers would come down to the overall winning percentage of each team’s conference opponents.

As the situation now evolves, the Bulldogs’ schedule will be shortened by facing all three Mississippi State, Kentucky and Auburn, which would combine for two SEC wins to date.

The first hurdle to overcome on the way to this delicious fun is LSU’s win over Alabama this weekend.

Brian Kelly has never lost in Baton Rouge and is now in the majority of his third season with the Tigers. Most notably, he upset Alabama on Saturday night in Death Valley in his first season. This only applies for now, but Tiger Stadium’s reputation will be reflected in the gambling line.

Douglas Council: Both Alabama and LSU were idle this week. This turn should begin with a rush favored by a field goal, give or take a hook. Just know this is the point where home field advantage will factor into the initial line drive. If you want to support the Tigers as they head toward SEC drama, act fast.

Overreact to Penn State’s loss to Ohio State, but only because the Nittany Lions are more dangerous than ever.

Penn State knows better than anyone that it hasn’t been able to beat a quality opponent this year. The Nittany Lions know how much they have, or haven’t, been stressing themselves in preparation up until last week.

And they know they missed an opportunity against Ohio State this weekend.

Now at 7-1, Penn State should have a double-digit lead in every remaining game, with only a trip to Minnesota within two touchdowns.

At 11-1, the Nittany Lions should still make the 12-team College Football Playoff, even if that record is missing a signature win.But Penn State must remove any doubt moving forward.

Douglas Council: Start treating the Nittany Lions like they throw everything at every opponent, including the kitchen sink. Any spread within -17 against Washington this weekend should be taken. James Franklin has no choice but to move forward, and with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki drawing up game plans, Penn State won’t look conservative anytime soon.

Don’t overreact to the absence of Army cornerback Bryson Daley.

The Black Knights surprised everyone by announcing their star defenseman would miss this weekend’s rivalry game against Air Force, which was unknown until Saturday morning. This shock moved the line to -18 before the end of the week started at -21.5 or -22.

And that absence mattered: Army went just 20-3 without Daly. Most notably, the explosiveness in the passing game was gone, with backup quarterback Dewayne Coleman going 5-of-8 for 48 yards.

Daley’s stats may seem modest, but over the last five games he has averaged 110 passing yards on 4.6 of 7.4 attempts per game. In other words, he averaged 23.9 yards per carry.

The Army did not specify what injury or illness occurredonly that he will return this season.

Douglas Council: Expect Daily to miss this week in North Texas. Army should be favored in double digits and the “Evil Green” defense is woeful. The Knights don’t need Daly to win, which would give him two more full weeks to get healthy before facing Notre Dame. The spread will be adjusted accordingly given Daly’s absence, but it may be useful to attack the nearby underground on Sunday, where something north of 60 stands out.

College Football Week: 10 Things You Need to React to

There was also an overreaction to Florida quarterback DJ Lagway’s apparent hamstring injury on Saturday.

No doubt Gators head coach Billy Napier will be cagey about Lagway’s status all week. This is all too common in college football today and is frustrating for us as players.

At best, Lagway will be uncomfortable in Texas. Florida will likely have to turn to Aidan Warner. This will be bad.

Douglas Council: Again, the quarterback’s concerns will be included in the information distributed; it’s more likely that the Under will have the advantage considering Florida may not score at all. Napier will not be left behind – he may well take a slower offensive approach, simply in the hope of reducing the scale of the explosion. Napier is on the verge of holding on to his post and a moderately decent loss would help. Any total above 45.5 should welcome a bet on the Under.

Continue to overreact to the damage done to the roster by coaches hired late in the cycle.

The damage done to these lists has not yet been properly assessed. To date, the nine programs that hired new coaches in mid-January or later are 23-42-1 ATS, including 3-3-1 last week and 7-7-1 in the last two weeks, not counting the full Washington wins and ATS wins. against Michigan earlier this season, considering both teams fit that description.

Those nine teams are UCLA, Michigan, Washington, Boston College, Arizona, Georgia State, Buffalo, South Alabama and San Jose State.

It’s clear that some teams have lived up to expectations, so two things stood out last week. The two went 1-0-1, with the push only happening because UConn was so generous in coverage against Georgia State.

In the same spirit…

Douglas Council: UCLA upset Nebraska, which was quite a surprise. The Bruins now host Iowa. Here’s the thing… Perhaps the Hawkeyes have a good offense right now? Iowa scored 42 points against Wisconsin this weekend, although one touchdown still came on an aggressively short field. So call it 35 points. 40 points last week, 24 of them legal against Northwestern.

What has changed? Quarterback Brendan Sullivan provides a more versatile offense than Cade McNamara ever did, but that hasn’t yet been fully factored into oddsmakers’ estimates. Iowa should be in double digits.

Second, Michigan travels to Indiana this weekend. Let’s keep it simple: The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, missing oddsmakers’ expectations by an average of 11.9 points over those four ATS losses. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are 8-1 this season. They beat expectations by an average of 19.5 points in Big Ten play. Take Indiana to -13.

Always remember: this is a stupid sport played with an oblong ball.

HE KNOCKED THE BALL OUT OF HIS TEAM MATE’S MASK AND THEN TOUCHED HIM!!! pic.twitter.com/CatsWpNB0q

— Covers (@Covers) November 3, 2024

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