It’s an abortion, stupid – William Kristol

I AM THE ONLY PERSON WHO FINDS, among many of my fellow commentators commenting on this election, a kind of reluctance, almost a kind of embarrassment, to state the obvious: Abortion rights are the issue that could decide this presidential contest.

This is especially clear from Anne Seltzer Iowa Pollwith Kamala Harris shockingly beating Donald Trump 47-44 in Iowa, a state with a six-week abortion ban.

But this, of course, was obvious from the very beginning. If it weren’t for Dobbs Solution: If the issue of reproductive rights had not been brought to the forefront of our politics in 2024, would Kamala Harris be ahead of Donald Trump? Will she lag because of general disapproval of the Biden-Harris administration, retrospective approval of Trump’s handling of the economy, and concerns about immigration and borders?

I don’t think January 6th will be enough to sink Trump. I really think Trump would have won if reproductive rights weren’t at stake. Trump has made it clear that he believes this too, from his deliberate attempts to muddy his position on the topic to his proclamation that women will not “think about abortion” if he is elected as he portrays himself as their “champion”.

The issue of abortion rights is critical to analyzing and understanding this election. But it worries leading commentators. Not because they aren’t pro-abortion rights—I think most of them are. But because somehow it doesn’t seem as important or relevant to deciding crucial elections compared to issues like the economy, democracy or even immigration. It’s also a little personal and, rightfully, emotional. So I think my colleagues (mostly men) are a little shy to discuss this issue.

But you know what? Dobbs was indeed one of the most important Supreme Court decisions of modern times. This influenced and influences real life. How Seltzer notedIn Iowa, it was the state’s ban that got people interested in voting. How Steve Kornacki notedintense coverage around the abortion ban was evident in Iowa polls – with mass opposition correlating with major gains for Harris.

It’s just Iowa. But the ripple effect Dobbs it can be seen far beyond its borders. The issue of abortion remains in question in several large states and perhaps nationally. The next president will appoint judges, will be able to sign laws, and will have the power to take executive actions that will actually affect access to abortion and other related issues.

Reproductive freedom is a real issue that separates the two presidential candidates and their two parties from each other. Voters have the right to vote on it. Many of them.

I’m sure there is quite a bit of internal debate going on within the Harris campaign and its associated Super PACs about how they should end with a positive, optimistic message of unity and the future. They may be wondering: What final message is as divisive and uncomfortable as abortion rights?

In fact, this is a powerful final message. Let the critical political commentators wring their hands. Reproductive freedom is a decisive and winning issue, and the Harris campaign would be foolish not to make it a closing issue these last couple of days.