US elections: it’s not (just) about the economy, fool

Opinion – In 1992, James Carville, Bill Clinton’s top strategist, hung a sign on the wall of the Democratic candidate’s campaign headquarters in Little Rock, Arkansas. It had three lines to focus the team’s attention on the key issues affecting the vote, and one of those lines became so famous that it became a political cliché.

The line read: “It’s the economy, fool.”

It stuck for good reason. Elections are almost always about the economy. It also ranks first in most polls asking voters the top question in the 2024 US presidential election. Just maybe not in the way you think.

We’ll come back to this shortly, because that’s what this article is about. But first, let’s be clear about why economics is so important. Take a look at this chart recently released by Gallup.

As you can see, if people lack trust in the economy, incumbents are punished. Any politician knows that economic confidence and electoral victory go hand in hand, and if Kamala Harris loses, one of the main reasons will be her failure to sell a clear economic recovery plan and the image many voters have of Trump as a leading politician. rammed the house with his name – a tough real estate business, and when he climbed out of a helicopter and fired people week after week on his top-rated reality show, Student.

But what is the real state of the US economy and why do so many Americans distrust it? Well, the effects of the Covid pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s slowing economy (among other things) have driven up prices around the world in the last few years, including in America. In 2022, inflation reached a 40-year high of 9.1 percent, although it fell back to 2.4 percent and annual growth returned to 2.8 percent. Gasoline prices are down from highs of $5 but remain stubbornly above $3 a gallon, defying forecasts. Unemployment is 4.1 percent.

This might be the winning statistic in most election years, but Americans have had some years of extreme results. That 9 percent inflation meant that prices overall have risen nearly 20 percent since Joe Biden became president. In 2022, unemployment exceeded 14 percent.

All this insecurity is still fresh in the mind, and incomes have not caught up with this surge in inflation. And most Americans have no idea of ​​the global moment in which they find themselves; they expect the president to protect them better.

But these are superficial economic debates, and they cloud what many people are actually saying when they tell pollsters that the economy and the cost of living are their top concerns in this election. Because here’s the rub: I think when a lot of people worry about the economy, they’re looking to the future.

This reflects another piece of advice that Carville posted on a wall in Little Rock back in 1992. It’s usually forgotten, but it’s as worth remembering as “It’s the Economy, Fool.” This other line? “Change versus more of the same.”

Oh yes, change. This is a complex issue, but I think his policy is pretty clear. Many people have lost confidence in their government institutions and are demanding change. In fact, they have been around since the beginning of the century. They’re fed up with no one doing anything, and this inflation is actually the latest in a long line of economic disappointments.

Back in May New York Times and Siena interviewed The battleground states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Overall, 40 percent said they would prefer a president who “promises to fundamentally change America.” When asked if they thought America’s political and economic system needed to change, 55 percent said “the system needs major changes,” nearly double the 27 percent who supported “minor changes.” But you know what? 14 percent said “the system needs to be completely demolished.” Few people want to maintain the status quo.

At that stage, it was a Biden vs. Trump race, and 13 percent said Biden would make “major changes” while 45 percent said Trump would. For many, it doesn’t really matter what the changes are. They just want something different. Anything but “more of the same.”

Many people, especially middle-aged, older, middle- and working-class people whose lifestyles and finances have deteriorated over a generation or two, feel less wealthy, more alienated and disrespected. This is bad news for any incumbent president.

And this confirms another piece of data I saw in a lecture by Glasgow University politics professor Chris Carman this week. He pointed to research showing that in 1980, white men without a college degree earned about 10 percent above the median full-time income.

But as the incomes of Asians, women, blacks and Hispanics have moved closer to or above the median, white men without a college degree now earn about 10 percent below the median income.

Their role as breadwinner, their status and pride, their ability to own a home, provide for their family, and hold their heads high were undermined. And the Democrats seem to have lost the ability to talk to them and their working/middle class families.

Is it any wonder then that they react to a politician like Trump who sounds just like them, reflects their frustrations and wants to return everything to the time when their America was great? Is it any wonder they’re so angry about immigration and trade deals, because while it’s not as simple as Trump makes it seem, it’s pretty orthodox from an economics standpoint to say that high levels of immigration do suppress wages, especially in low-wage jobs.

Is it any wonder that they attack “change” in all its forms when they find themselves on the losing side, while simultaneously wanting more change to get back on their feet? In my opinion, culture wars and economic wars are deeply intertwined.

Don’t get me wrong, there are deep tensions of prejudice in some parts of the US, a conservative form of Christianity that demands a disproportionate focus on abortion and sexuality, and a level of misinformation and misinformation that runs staggeringly deep. .

But underlying the elections and polls showing the economy is by far the biggest problem are generations of social and economic change that have left too many people behind. There is a loss of trust in public institutions and a sense of hopelessness, which means that too many are happy that democracy is on the ballot in this election; because they feel betrayed, they want to burn everything.

If Trump wins, a frustrated and bitter people may have their way. If Harris wins, she will face a deeply rooted challenge: fulfilling her promise to be a president for everyone. Actually do something about the cause of her country’s polarization, not the symptoms.

Because you’d have to be really stupid not to see that we’re running out of time to save the idea of ​​America and the strong, hopeful middle class that supports it.

* This article originally appeared on Pandit.

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