It’s easy to imagine Juan Soto of the Yankees: Will they give him a better contract?

SAN ANTONIO – There are two paths the Yankees will take this offseason: one where they keep Juan Soto and one where they don’t.

Keeping Soto would make the Yankees’ winter easier. He would have been a luxury item and the centerpiece of what I suspect would have been an unimpressive offseason at the time if 1) post-Chiba Lotte Marines ace Rocky Sasaki and 2) a Yankee win for the right-handed ace Turned 23 years old on Sunday.

Since Sasaki is under 25 years old, he can only sign a minor league contract, making him available to any club. And pricing will matter to the Yankees, especially if they put Soto back on the balance sheet.

Their payroll for luxury tax purposes in 2024 was approximately $315 million, which would be about $60 million. Hal Steinbrenner said that salary level was unacceptable for the Yankees.

Let’s leave that for another time to discuss whether the Yankees should set salaries at that level or higher. That’s what the owner wants, and it appears he’d like to get payroll down to $300 million and preferably down to the $291 million tax cap. This will make it difficult to get Soto and many others from the outside unless they find a way to land a big contract.

FanGraphs currently projects the Yankees will receive a tax payment of $245 million in 2025. That figure assumes the Yankees will add a year to Gerrit Cole’s existing deal before Monday night’s deadline. But that includes arbitration speculation regarding Trent Grisham, who appears almost certainly to be traded or non-tendered, as well as questionable players up for trade in John Berti, JT Brubaker and Tim Maiza.

However, even with the cut, assuming Soto makes at least $40 million per year and could go up to $50 million or more, that would put the Yankees close to the $291 million tax cap. This will highlight the need to reduce costs in as many other areas as possible.

That’s why I think the two main goals of the offseason should be improving Yasson Dominguez’s defense and Oswald Peraza’s offense. If the Yankees really want us to believe they are prioritizing the fundamentals rather than just checking boxes, then asking Dominguez to be part of the early group that returns to the minor league complex well before spring training is critical. The Yankees need to regularly coach Dominguez on defense and not just flag fly balls, etc. They need to work at real speed on game situations and emphasize how important it is for Dominguez to do more than just hit.

And the Yankees need to get Peraza to use the entire field and become a better hitter so he can at least replace Bertie inexpensively, if not more.

As for Soto, he won’t have to do much of the sales work. He is probably the best player in the world due to his incredible strike zone control. Then add that in 2024, he proved he can succeed in New York and confirmed he is an elite postseason player. He also just turned 26 during the World Series.

Bringing Soto back will create a structural problem for the three years Giancarlo Stanton has left on his contract as the starting cornerback, as it means Soto will be at right tackle and Aaron Judge will remain at center entering his age-33 season. This will only be alleviated if the one or two yearly injuries Stanton endures open up the DH role for stretches of time or if Judge or Soto begin to take over some first base duties.

But Soto’s bat poses a more complex defensive puzzle. Soto would have every right to demand a 14-year contract payable in 39, like Judge, and/or more per year than Shohei Ohtani’s record luxury tax figure of $46.08 million (calculated with deferments on his 10-year deal Dodger worth $700). . Fourteen years with $658 million in revenue can achieve both. But Soto could be aiming to become the first player to make $50 million a year without deferments or reach $700 million without delays. I remember after the 2000 season, his agent Scott Boras had such a twenty-five-year-old star in Alex Rodriguez, and he notably doubled what was then the largest North American team sports record of $126 million for Kevin Garnett by signing him 10-year contract for $252 million. Rangers. I wouldn’t be shocked – given the symbolic value – if they paid $720 million… or double Judge’s $360 million.

There will be plenty of teams interested, but the Yankees’ biggest concern should be the Mets. If Steve Cohen decides this a piece of baseball art he can’t live withoutthen I suspect that Steinbrenner will go down before the Mets owner. If the Mets aren’t so gung-ho, the Yankees’ path to retaining players becomes clearer. Perhaps Soto will return to the West if the Giants offer big money or go to Canada with the Blue Jays. But I feel like he wants to be a historic player, and that’s easier to do in New York, especially with the Yankees.

This does not mean discounting because of roll call or sympathy for New York’s large Dominican population that supported him. But it does help the Yankees’ efforts. Every stadium is well built for a special offensive player like Soto, but Yankee Stadium especially suits him in both power and average. While anyone who thinks his career-high 41 homers came off the short porch, know that more than half (21) came on the road.

He had a 1.017 on the road and .990 at home; .999 vs. righties/.996 vs. lefties; 0.985 in the first half/0.995 in the second; 1,142 with runners in scoring position; and 1.101 in the postseason. He had 10 postseason appearances with runners in scoring position and was successful in seven of them, including hitting a pennant-winning three-run homer in Game 5 of the ALCS.

Again, it’s an easy sell. For the Yankees, he’s probably worth going to a financially uncomfortable place because 1) trying to replace his offense with multiple players might cost more than just finding a path to him, and 2) a combination of elite talent becoming a free agent. this kind of youth is rare and you just can’t wait until next year to get another opportunity, 3) this is the Yankees and their brand history is a win for retaining this type of player.

Still, the Mets are expected to be a real factor—and other teams could burst into that stratosphere, too. Steinbrenner should take his desire to cut wages seriously. So it’s not downtime. It is possible that Soto will go elsewhere. Tomorrow in Part 2 we’ll talk about what the Yankees should do in this case.