Trump trades take hit as Harris betting odds rise after Iowa election

• Kamala Harris’ rising electoral chances in recent days have weakened Trump’s deal.
• In a weekend poll, Harris led Trump in Iowa, tilting betting markets in Harris’ direction.
• Treasury yields, the US dollar, the Mexican peso, Bitcoin and Trump Media stock are moving.

Unexpected shift in key presidential election over the weekend fluctuating betting odds towards Kamala Harris, hitting the slew of “Trump deals” that have coalesced in recent weeks.

A survey published over the weekend if Harris had beaten former President Donald Trump in Iowa, 47% to 44%. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, conducted by pollster J. Ann Seltzer, is significant because Iowa is considered a state Trump is likely to win.

“It’s hard to say they saw this coming,” Seltzer told the Des Moines Register. “She’s clearly taken the lead.”

The poll sent shockwaves through betting markets over the weekend, with Kalshi showing Harris’ odds briefly ahead of Trump 51% to 49% for the first time since early October.

As of Monday morning at 11:35 a.m. ET, odds on the betting site were 55% on Trump and 45% on Harris. At Polymarket, where Trump’s odds were above 60% last week, they fell to 58.1% and Harris’ odds at 42.8%.

Large swings in betting odds have caused turmoil to be felt in financial markets ahead of the election.

Here’s how the five parts of Trump’s deal stand.

(1) Treasury yields fall

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 12 basis points on Monday, falling to 4.275% after a surprise survey over the weekend.

The rise in Treasury yields after the Fed cut interest rates in September reflected market confidence that a second Trump presidency looks likely and that there will be one. inflationary event due to his promises of sharp tariff increases and mass deportations, which would push up prices and wages respectively.

Investors have been eyeing higher yields in recent weeks, betting Trump’s policies will make it more difficult for the Fed to cut rates further.

(2) US dollar weakens

The dollar soared in October as the odds of a Trump presidency increased and markets saw potential for tariffs and higher interest rates to increase the exchange rate compared to competitors.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of other major currencies, jumped about 4% in October.

However, that trade eased on Monday as Harris’ bet odds rose, with the U.S. Dollar Index falling nearly 1% to 103.55.

(3) The Mexican peso is rising.

The peso has fallen sharply over the past month as Trump’s chances of winning the election have increased.

It is believed that the former president will pursue harsh trade policies aimed at Mexico in order to “shift” production from Mexico to the United States, which will harm the peso.

The Mexican peso lost 3% against the U.S. dollar over the past month but recovered most of those losses as polls and the betting market moved toward Harris, gaining 1.5% on Monday.

(4) Bitcoin is falling

Bitcoin was one of Trump’s hottest deals this year due to the former president’s enthusiasm for the cryptocurrency market.

Trump gave the keynote speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in July and attended the launch of the cryptocurrency token last month. The market considered him the “crypto president” and his victory was prompted by prospects of huge profits in the token price.

While Harris has a positive view of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency community, it is not as strong as Trump’s.

So with Harris betting odds rising over the weekend, Bitcoin fell about 2% from Friday to $68,350.

(5) Trump Media shares fall

Trump’s biggest deal may have been Trump Media and Technology Groupparent company of the social network Truth Social. Promotions have begun rally in meme style The former president has strengthened his position in betting markets and polls in recent weeks.

Even the company’s valuation eclipsed X Elon Muskbased on the latest update from Fidelity in August.

However, stocks turned sharply as Trump’s chances of winning the election fell. Truth Social shares fell as much as 5% on Monday and are down about 47% since last week.