History shows that write-in candidates almost never win in Wyoming, so why run?

State Rep. John Conrad, R-Mountain View, is under no illusions about the uphill battle he faces in Tuesday’s general election as a write-in candidate.

“It’s an incredibly heavy load,” Conrad said.

Write-in campaigns have a notoriously low success rate due to the difficulty of not only getting someone to vote for you, but also getting them to remember to write their name on the ballot.

Most voters are still not very involved in politics, and with the high-stakes presidential race the main event on Tuesday, there will be a significant group of voters who are likely to have little or no familiarity with the legislative candidates they are voting for. on. Another major case will also likely see Republican candidates voting to support former President Donald Trump’s campaign.

Under Wyoming law, if a candidate loses a primary election, he is not allowed to have his name printed on the general election ballot that year.

Moral satisfaction

After losing the Republican primary for the 19th House District in August, Conrad decided to launch a formal campaign to get on the ticket after receiving pressure from others to do so and correct what he believed was part of the misinformation and lies told about him during his primary election. race against Lyman challenger Joe Webb. Conrad said getting to the truth is one of the main reasons he ran a full campaign this fall as an extension of his primary.

“I just want the facts to be known,” Conrad said. “I felt like there was so much misinformation, disinformation and propaganda against me in the primary that I needed to clear things up.”

After spending $36,896 on his primary campaign, Conrad spent another $31,678 on his reelection campaign this fall. Conrad knocked on doors almost daily and spent a significant amount of money on mailers and Facebook ads, as well as writing individual letters and calling constituents.

When contacted Monday morning, Conrad told Cowboy State Daily he was ready for the campaign season to end.

Cody resident and Sleeping Giant Ski and Zip owner Nick Piazza is running a registration campaign on behalf of his longtime friend Cody Mayor Matt Hall, who lost the Republican primary for the 24th House District to fellow challenger Nina Webber by about 170 votes.

Hall is staying out of the campaign to avoid being seen as a loser, but Piazza is taking the effort very seriously, paying for full-page newspaper advertising as well as campaigning for Hall on Facebook through his business, Sleeping Giant. and other types of cooperation with local businesses.

Piazza hopes to correct what he sees as a mistake in the fact that only about 10% of the local population participated in the primary election. A dual citizen of Ukraine, Piazza said that if a similar scenario had played out there, the election would likely have been seen as a huge scandal and election fraud.

“In my opinion, this is an expression of democracy,” Piazza said. “I don’t think it will change anything, but I think it will at least be a reasonable and fair election.”

Piazza is also frustrated that Republican infighting has taken over the GOP and believes most Republicans agree on about 95% of issues, citing the collaborative process that took place to help Cody secure the state’s rifle complex. Piazza views divisions within the GOP as a distraction from the real issues, which he called a “high-sugar” approach that reduces the quality of the candidate pool.

“At a certain point, you’re going to run out of Republicans to gobble up, and everyone knows that if you feed kids a ton of sugar, eventually they’ll collapse,” Piazza said.

Casper resident Gina Douglas is running as a candidate for the 37th House District after sitting out in the primary. Douglas was involved in many grassroots campaigns, including working actively against Casper Republican Rep. Jeanette Ward’s campaign during the primary election.

After speaking with her representative Steve Harshman, R-Casper, Douglas felt Harshman was making too many capitulations to the Wyoming Freedom Caucus and not representing the issues that matter most in Wyoming. Harshman ran unopposed in the primary and has no official opponent in Tuesday’s election.

“Wyoming has lost our democracy and we have one party that is so entrenched that they don’t care what you think,” Douglas said. “People were drawn into the idea that Republicans were more patriotic.”

Douglas, a registered Democrat who bills herself as a nonpartisan candidate, also takes the campaign very seriously, despite acknowledging the long odds of winning, and often knocks on doors. If elected, Douglas wants to expand Medicaid and legalize medical marijuana.

“Why aren’t we talking about these issues?” – asked Douglas. “Why are we talking about illegal migrants voting? Why are we talking about protecting women and girls in the bathroom rather than expanding Medicaid and marijuana reform?”

Low primary turnout gives hope

Public participation in the August primary election was quite low, with only about 27% of the state’s eligible voters casting a ballot. This gives hope to all registered candidates that a large turnout in Tuesday’s election could improve their chances, given that turnout in presidential elections is always higher than in primaries.

“People don’t realize the low voter turnout, was it a member of the public?” – Conrad asked.

Only about 1,800 people voted in Conrad’s August race, which he lost by 220 votes. If all 9,459 people who voted in Uinta County in the 2020 election do so again on Tuesday, it’s possible Conrad could trim his lead over Webb.

A similar scenario could play out in Park County, where 2,650 votes were cast in Hall’s race with Webber in August. In the 2020 general election, Park County had 16,815 votes cast.

Douglas, a transgender woman, was also encouraged by the response she received when she knocked on the door: About three out of every four people she spoke with supported her campaign.

“People treat me like a normal person, that in itself is a victory,” Douglas said.

Harsh reality

The biggest hurdle candidates face in registering is getting voters to remember their name on Election Day. To help overcome this hurdle, Conrad and Douglas sent out mailers and other information telling voters how and where to enter their names.

Very few write-in candidates have been elected in American history, but there are a few exceptions. One of the most famous examples is Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska, who lost her primary race for U.S. Senate in 2010 but later won after a successful general election campaign.

Rep. Amber Oakley, R-Riverton, said she was approached by a group of supporters about campaigning after she lost her re-election bid to Republican challenger Joel Guggenmos in August. Oakley frankly told her supporters that there had to be an organized campaign before she would take any part in it.

“I said, ‘I’m not going to start another campaign until I see where it goes,’” Oakley said.

While the group did pay for a few local radio and online ads, their efforts fell slightly short of what Oakley wanted to see to get back on the campaign trail.

Conrad, Piazza and Douglas said if their campaigns produce a competitive result on Tuesday, they will consider it a moral victory and acknowledge that their chances are slim.

Sometimes politics is about playing the long game and winning voter acceptance over multiple elections. Douglas believes her campaign is setting the stage for a more formal campaign in 2026.

“I’m gaining momentum to beat him next time,” Douglas said.

Leo Wolfson can be contacted at [email protected].